Video

Dembik Christopher
Marine Le Pen has reached the second round of the French presidential election on May 7 to face Emmanuel Macron. Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik considers how the country’s economy will perform if she wins.
Squawk / 07 May 2017 at 10:54 GMT
Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
France
French presidential election:
At noon, stable turnaround compared to the first round (around 28.23%). Next figure to be published at 5pm.
Quite clear at that stage to say the winner will be E. Macron (based on last polls).
1y
AlexF AlexF
Cris will the Swiss or Belgian TV publish initial polls ? I cant see anything on tsr.ch
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
Yes. And unofficial results confirm that French citizens living abroad have massively voted in favor of EM (over 90% of the votes in the US and Canada).
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
UPDATE: Turnaround at 5pm at 65.3% vs 69.4% in the first round. Quite low compared to historical data but still risk is close to zero that MLP will be elected.
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
IMPORTANT: based on my calculations, MLP could have a chance to be elected president only if the participation rate drops to 50% (which is impossible).
1y
AlexF AlexF
Merci encore 90 minutes. Forex market on saxo open also at 8 PM right ? Stop loss in place
1y
AlexF AlexF
Do you think the % of vote for EM will matter for euro ? Eg +60 for EM stronger euro than a 52%-48% or does not matter.
1y
AlexF AlexF
I would think a trong EM voctory would be positive for long EURGBP as he has a strong stance for europe and brexit cost
1y
AlexF AlexF
between 62-65% for EM
1y
AlexF AlexF
Plus de 60% des voix pour Emmanuel Macron, un score sans appel. Mais "les Français ne se sont pas mobilisés en force pour le candidat".
1y
AlexF AlexF
Now the question is euro sell on the news or passes 1.1 on eurusd ?
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
Yes, it seems that EM gets around 62-65% of votes (which is aligned with last polls). It might be positive for EUR during the Asian session (especially due to the lack of volumes). But I don't think the movement will last...Key point: EM is considered by investors as a hard-liner regarding Brexit (could be negative for GBP in short term).
1y
AlexF AlexF
Then sell off at europe opening ? have a basket of eur long position (CHF, USD, GBP)
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
Problem is low volumes also in Europe...So best to be very careful. key: market has already priced in Macron's victory (especially when it comes to the banking sector).
1y
AlexF AlexF
Yes I agree on EURGBP was hoping for a strong victory of EM would be negative GBP due to his position on brexit , and positive EUR. UBS issued a trade with a 0.88 target on EURGBP in case of EM strong victory
1y
AlexF AlexF
Cris on question for non EUR cross such as USDCAD what would EM victory have any effect or none ? (have a position on short USDCAD). Guess risk on effect at least temporary
1y
AlexF AlexF
we open at 5 AM sidney time....1 hour after official results
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
I don't think so...at least, it would not really make sense.
1y
Cat Cat
What time does final vote count come through or when will the bulk of the regions be tallied?
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
Official results are out at 8PM.
1y
Cat Cat
Thank you.
1y
Dembik Christopher Dembik Christopher
You're welcome Cat
1y
AlexF AlexF
tx MSN28
1y
AlexF AlexF
Seems eurusd 1.1030

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail