Day trade
/
Sell
Trade view / 08 March 2017 at 8:22 GMT

Fibonaccis and breakout targets line up in USDCHF

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target: 1.0045
Market price: 1.0136
Background

Looking to take a short trade in USDCHF this morning, and here is why: 

Monthly – Nothing to take away from the monthly chart. Holding between two trend lines, with January's bearish outside month offering a mild negative outlook. 
USDCHF M
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Various formations here, most are conflicting: 
1. Bearish ending wedge pattern (break of 0.9768 and the measured move is 0.9071 - important)
2. Bullish channel
3. Possible bullish cup and handle 
USDCHF W
Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – The reverse trendline resistance keeps holding back the bulls, with traders selling into nearly all of yesterday’s initial rally. Trading has been mixed for 26 days, which is common in corrective formations. The most important long-term factor here is the 261.8% extension level lines up perfectly with the wedge target at 0.9071 (from 1.0341-0.9856).
USDCHF D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (eight-hour) – The ending wedge formation and the fact that we rejected a level close to the 61.8% pullback of 1.0158 (from 1.0341-0.9860) keep the bears alive. Trendline support seen at 1.0044 (important for the day trade idea). 
USDCHF 8
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (30 minutes) – Impulsive selloff from yesterday’s high trade (1.0170). The move higher has been corrective and mild. A mild rally to 1.0143 is likely to post an intraday DeMark exhaustion 13 count. The 261.8% extension is seen at the base of the wedge (1.0045). A move through 1.0120 and the selloff is underway. 
USDCHF 30
Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

Taking a short trade in USDCHF this morning. Trying also to leave a unit on for the long-term trade.

Parameters

Entry: Sell at 1.0145 and/or a break of 1.0122

Stop: 40 pips combined

Targets: intraday 1.0045, long-term 0.9080

Time horizon: day trade and longer term


— Edited by John Acher

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here

2y
John Roberti John Roberti
Regarding NZDUSD, this morning has been so far a close call with the market at 4 bips of the stop loss! Let's hope. M
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
Regarding NZDUSD, this morning has been so far a close call with the market at 4 bips of the stop loss! Let's hope. May be, it is the impact of geopolitical tensions with china and North Korea
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
we need a reversal pattern ... might get a Head and Shoulders ?
2y
usxau usxau
dreadfully slow market. How do you spell patience? LOL
2y
goldfinger goldfinger
Tedious, I would say
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
Other technicians arte saying that the pair NZDUSD could go as low as 68,90 before turning up? very difficult market to read! I will nit change the stop loss
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
another close call for NZDUSD with 1 bit close to stop loss! Pretty stressing game...
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
It looks that GPBUSD would go to 1,2100 thus USD is continuing to move up so far (may be also MAY difficulties with UIK parliament) while USDJPY appears to be locked in a tight range around 114 What( do you think of these two pairs?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPUSD 1.2130 next support
2y
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
GBPUSD will parish. Going down the drain. If Fed Hike next week, sterling will be in Trouble.
2y
usxau usxau
Well first lets see what the ECB does tomorrow, this might determine where cable goes until the FED is up! :)
2y
usxau usxau
Nice call on Swissie Ian! ;) I am sorry I am not in it! ;(
2y
usxau usxau
Rofhiwa, the rate hike next week is already priced in the USD imo, all it comes down to next week is forward guidance and the pace of hikes into the future.
2y
trendy trendy
Hi everybody! Sabrina, what's going with your long GBPJPY?
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
Ian, We are out of NZDUSD! Now the question is: where will the pair go from here 0,6890? At that level I may try again?
2y
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
GBPJPY is now Bullish on a rally. unfortunately I hedged the position.
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
Hi Ian been in meetings all day i see good data from the US ADP will we see downward trend on the USDCHF ??
2y
John Roberti John Roberti
If I understand correctly, John Hardy believes that, with the current level 6917 NZDUSD has a chance to see 6865? What do you think?
2y
Jazzy Jazzy
Hi Ian, can you please give your opinion an update? Thanks in advantage :)
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am still holding the trade ... not hit stop as yet
2y
Jazzy Jazzy
Thank you! i'm still holding it too, but because the US ADP payrolls report i was curius about your opinion. Thanks
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
I am still im Mr Coleman see you in the morning
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
GBPUSD long yet ??
2y
seas seas
Nope, not me yet.
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
USDCHF - reacting well from the 4th wave correction

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