Short term
/
Buy
Trade view / 24 January 2018 at 1:15 GMT

EURUSD uptrend persists

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: EURUSD
Price target: 1.2413
Market price: 1.2303
Background

The Bank of Japan held the line on Tuesday, despite predictions from many quarters they would signal an intention to take their foot off the accelerator as reported here. 

In fact, one member called for more easing.

A similar set up is in place leading into the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. 

Despite rapidly improving economic conditions, inflation remains missing in action, giving the bank little incentive to make any changes to forward guidance. So the odds favour an upward adjustment in EURUSD following the meeting.

On Friday we get the first estimate of fourth quarter 2017 GDP growth out of the US with expectations of a number in excess of 3% annualised. Given the gloom around the dollar at the moment, a miss would drive it lower.

Management and risk description

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the Euro still displays a developing Bullish 5-Wave sequence from last November’s 1.1555 low (see Daily Chart below).

In the short term, support lies at 1.2270/1.2250, looking for rally above 1.2320 resistance onto next Targets at 1.2375 and 1.2420.

Parameters 

Entry: EUR/USD is today seen as a Buy at 1.2285/1.2270 (until 1.2320 resistance cleared)

Stop: 50% below 1.2250 and 50% below 1.2220 (both initially, as always)

Target: 50% at 1.2369 and 50% at 1.2413

Time horizon: Allow a few days for targets to be met 

EURUSD daily chart (click to expand)
EURUSD daily chart
Source: ThomsonReuters  

EURUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
EURUSD weekly chart
Source: ThomsonReuters  

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
2y
sutiani sutiani
EUR/USD is today seen as a Buy at 1.2285/1.2270 (until 1.2320 resistance cleared),,,morning mr.Max.....first price going up to 1.2320..(seen as a Buy at 1.2285/1.2270..trading cancel ???)thank you
2y
Max McKegg Max McKegg
above 1.2320 first and then not chasing the trade. Its all about risk management OK
2y
Treve Treve
Superb Analysis Max! You're really on fire with your forecasts
2y
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Thanks. I try to stay as Objective and as true to my analysis as I possibly can.

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