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James Kim@Saxo
James Kim, sales trader at Saxo Capital Markets, Australia, examines trading strategies during week 19 in a technical analysis of charts for forex and indices. Kim looks at trends in the US dollar index and at pairs including EURUSD and AUDUSD. He also examines eMini futures and gold.
Short term
Trade view / 18 July 2016 at 8:08 GMT

EURUSD: Upside rejection to dominate

Partner at 3 C ANALYSIS / 3cAnalysis
United Kingdom
Instrument: EURUSD
Price target:
Market price:

For a third week in a row, trading was contained within the parameters set by the Brexit week. In fact, the last five days produced the narrowest range since early April, and only limited net movement. The upside was capped by a 50% correction point, but selling pressure was unable to sustain prices below the 13/200-day moving average area until Friday’s late decline. Obviously, this price action cannot provide strong signals for sentiment going into this week, but they are assessed as negative.

Management and risk description

A move to 1.0971 means the stop can be lowered to break even.


Entry: Sell in the 1.1055/65 area, and any rally to 1.1119.

Stop: 1.1186 bid.

Target: 1.0971, 1.0910 or even 1.01815.

Time horizon: This week, ending Friday, July 22, 1pm London time.

Limited movement in the EURUSD weekly chart
Limited Movement

EURUSD daily chart: 50% caps
50% Caps
Long-term EURUSD chart
Long Term
 All charts from CQG.

— Edited by D. Deacon

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
18 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Hi Alan, what do you think of the pair performance? is the trade still on?
19 July
AlanCollins AlanCollins
no change to this call currently. Lacks real momentum but sentiment remains negative
19 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
19 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
nice call
19 July
Ghazanfar Ghazanfar
i am following your trade \,if any changing in trade then please inform me via mail
19 July
AlanCollins AlanCollins
tks Haytham....Ghazanfar.. no change in call but might be worth reducing some exposure near 1.1020.
19 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
is there momentum to hit the first target today?
19 July
AlanCollins AlanCollins
probably not - see above - I would be reducing at current levels rather than 1.0971.
21 July
assi assi
Hi Alan, any update about EURUSD...? thanks
21 July
assi assi
Till now todays high caped by both EMA13 & SMA13....we might lower the stop..?
21 July
AlanCollins AlanCollins
yes - I think give the fact that we're near the end of the week makes a move a good idea. The capping by the 13 ema, especially today, does keep the focus on the downside but bears need to sustain lvls beneath 1.1000 to get momentum. Would be inclined to use today's high as a stop, tomorrow.


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