A global bonds selloff has pushed yields up across the board towards post-Brexit highs while the anti-establishment wave sweeping the western world could force a 'No' vote on the Italian referendum in December.
Day trade
Trade view / 01 July 2016 at 7:37 GMT

EURUSD downside case remains — add-in on rallies

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom

USD Index – If we close this week near to current levels, it will be a concern for USD bulls (myself being one of them). This would post a Doji style candle on the weekly chart close to the 50% pullback level of 96.24 (from 100.60-91.88). However, I think this is unlikely to happen with a bullish Outside Candle posted on the 6-hour chart from yesterday’s base. Dips should now find buyers. 

Every timeframe in EURUSD has a bearish outlook and I can see no reason to close out my short position (from 1.1121). 

Monthly – Posted a bearish Outside Candle from close to the top of the consolidating channel formation. Both of these factors a negative for EURUSD. The prime target zone is close to parity (1.0000)
 Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Sitting in a consolidating triangle pattern. Just stalled at the Ichimoku Cloud base. No clear indication of a change of trend. 
 Source: Saxo Bank

DailyPosted mixed trading (common in corrective formation) and the retest of the expanding wedge breakout is now complete. We now need to see an acceleration to the downside. The prime support is close to 1.0800 being the 161.8% extension and previous support. The wedge target is not until 1.0540.
 Source: Saxo Bank

IntradaySat within another triangle formation. The trend of lower highs is lined up with our bespoke resistance at 1.1151. This is our prime short entry. However, with that level already tested, the selloff could accelerate from here. A break of 1.1040 and the move lower is underway (triangle base) 
Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

A move through 1.1040 and stop gets moved to entry.


Entry: short at 1.1121 and will sell again close to 1.1150.

Stop: 1.1180.

Target: 1.0800 area first. 

Time horizon: short now. 5-10 sessions for target. 

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


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