Short term
Trade view / 19 September 2016 at 7:37 GMT

EURUSD bearish after key average break

Partner at 3 C ANALYSIS / 3cAnalysis
United Kingdom
Background

Although the bulk of last week's price action saw EURUSD supported by the 13/100 day moving average area, upward progress was limited. This failure to build upon the previous week's gains then led to Friday’s strong decline through the averages and a daily Marabuzo line to take EURUSD to test the 200-day line. 

That point has held the currency pair since the end of July but with a third down week the last four signals for sentiment are negative.

Management and risk description

A move to 1.1046 means the stop can be lowered to break even or better.

Parameters

Entry: sell in 1.1165/75 area and any 1.1243 rally.

Stop: 1.1328 bid.

Target: 1.1046, 1.0978 or even 1.0910.

Time horizon: this week, ending Friday at 12 p.m. GMT.

Sellers return:
Sellers Return

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Source: CQG

Testing average:
Testing Average
Source: CQG

Long-term:
Long Term
Source: CQG

— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
19 September
marran marran
im in on this trade im keeping a tighter stop[ loss though
19 September
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Hi Alan, still optimistic about this trade?
19 September
AlanCollins AlanCollins
yes. Very early days in the life of this view and although EURUSD a tickle higher, thin markets don't necessarily reflect sentiment accurately.
20 September
yakcay yakcay
Hi Alan. With EURUSD at 11.98 now, how do you see this trade going? Should we update it with a tighter stop?
20 September
AlanCollins AlanCollins
no. quite happy with levels. Reaction to Friday's move always likely but studies suggest that the market will still sell quicker and more pronounced than buy
20 September
yakcay yakcay
OK. Thank you for the response...
20 September
TradingFan TradingFan
Hi Alan, having the trade in positive territory, I hope tomorrow's moves wont touch our stop, confirming it? Thanks
20 September
TradingFan TradingFan
With a nice profit, I closed the trade now. We'll see market's reaction to FED status quo. ..
21 September
AlanCollins AlanCollins
Pleased it worked for you. Intraday signals are soft (ish) but very wise not to run into FOMC IMO.
21 September
yakcay yakcay
Alan, are you suggesting we close during the day before FOMC?
21 September
AlanCollins AlanCollins
well a lot depends on your risk appetite. There are no technical signals to be other than short currently (although momentum is not pronounced) but I hate to see profit turn to loss if/when it's caused by such a potential outlier like the FOMC.
22 September
Bullionaire Bullionaire
I am still in the trade, fingers crossed.

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