Trade view /
14 September 2016 at 7:26 GMT
USD Index – Although the dollar lacked any real direction in early European trade yesterday, by the US session, bulls had returned to the market. There is little in the way to suggest that this upwards move is coming to an end. Resistance is seen at 96.12.
With regards to trades, we get stopped out of a few setups for flat but the end result was reasonable. In hindsight, we should have run the JPY crosses overnight.
Short in EURUSD at 1.1220. Here is why we are in the trade and prime short entry levels for today.
Monthly – There is no change in our long term outlook. We still look to parity after the prolonged period of consolidation.
Weekly – Within a complex consolidating triangle that has a bias to break lower. If this is to be the third wave (of a bearish five pattern) then we need to see an impulsive move to the downside very soon. Next support is the Fibonacci confluence area at 1.0760-20.
Daily – Highlights a bearish channel formation. Rallies being sold near the trend of lower highs.
Six hour – We look to be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. A break of 1.1170 and the measured move target is 1.0890. We have bespoke resistance at 1.1245. This level has been tested and rejected so we are happy to be short.
Source: Saxo Bank
EURUSD – 5-year:
The only fear with this call today is that, with the lack of any real high tier economic releases, we could hold inside the formation.
Management and risk description
Small profit can be taken at 1.1170 OR bring stop to entry.
Target: intraday 1.1170. Measured move target 1.0890 (see above for management)
Time horizon: open. 2-3 sessions for targets
— Edited by Clare MacCarthy
Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more