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Trade view / 14 September 2016 at 7:26 GMT

EURUSD – All timeframes point to the downside

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: EURUSD
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – Although the dollar lacked any real direction in early European trade yesterday, by the US session, bulls had returned to the market. There is little in the way to suggest that this upwards move is coming to an end. Resistance is seen at 96.12.

USD index

With regards to trades, we get stopped out of a few setups for flat but the end result was reasonable. In hindsight, we should have run the JPY crosses overnight.

Short in EURUSD at 1.1220. Here is why we are in the trade and prime short entry levels for today. 

Monthly – There is no change in our long term outlook. We still look to parity after the prolonged period of consolidation. 
eurusd m
Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Within a complex consolidating triangle that has a bias to break lower. If this is to be the third wave (of a bearish five pattern) then we need to see an impulsive move to the downside very soon. Next support is the Fibonacci confluence area at 1.0760-20.  
EURUSD W
 Source: Saxo Bank

Daily – Highlights a bearish channel formation. Rallies being sold near the trend of lower highs. 
EURUSD D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Six hour – We look to be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern. A break of 1.1170 and the measured move target is 1.0890. We have bespoke resistance at 1.1245. This level has been tested and rejected so we are happy to be short. 
eurusd 6
Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD – 5-year:
chart
 Source: Saxo Bank

The only fear with this call today is that, with the lack of any real high tier economic releases, we could hold inside the formation. 

Management and risk description

Small profit can be taken at 1.1170 OR bring stop to entry.

Parameters

Entry: 1.1220

Stop: 1.1265

Target: intraday 1.1170. Measured move target 1.0890 (see above for management)

Time horizon: open. 2-3 sessions for targets

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
14 September
abach abach
Good idea. However a target below 1.10 is not realistic given that no one wants a strong dollar. Imagine what will DOW or the commodities look like if such a move happens.
14 September
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
I'm in
14 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
good luck
14 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Abach ... I might call you back on that comment in a couple on months ;-)
14 September
Danjo0368 Danjo0368
I'm in
14 September
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
not today still hammered on GBPUSD , what's your outlook for GBPUSD Ian
14 September
Cap21 Cap21
euro/usd !
14 September
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
I'm out. Just made enough profit for the day. Well done Ian
14 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPUSD ... I am only a bear (sorry can't help) selling into rallies this morning
14 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
closing out EURUSD for a small loss. (6 pips)
14 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPUSD just completed an AB=CD formation.... IT IS NOT A STRONG BUY SIGNAL> .... more a target ..... but if it help DJ TinTIn
14 September
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
took a loss on one trade part of risk management still holding on with the GBPUSD by having a heavy week , live another day which is part of trading
14 September
JakubSzalaFX JakubSzalaFX
Eurusd may range till FOMC or drop before max. to 1.1130-50

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