Medium term
Trade view / 20 December 2017 at 5:30 GMT

EURJPY rectangle holds key to next trend move

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: EURJPY
Price target: 137.40
Market price: 133.75

EURUSD found some support yesterday as Eurozone bond yields rose and the cross currency basis recovered from a five-year low. There is little data of importance on the Eurozone economic calendar heading into Xmas.
But there is still one potentially significant event for USDJPY, namely the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement on Thursday.

Analysts are not expecting any change to the yield curve control parameters at this time but with fewer bond purchases being needed to hold the curve steady over recent months, the statement could make some adjustment to the monetary base expansion target.

However that would be seen as a tapering of the QE program and the bank may not want to give such as signal yet, especially with inflation still missing in action. 
This will be my last posting for the year. Tomorrow I will be turning off the screens for two weeks to recharge my trading batteries. Back again early January.

Management and risk description

For the past three months EURJPY has been locked within 131.35–134.50 Rectangle corrective consolidation.

Individual “Commitment of Trader” report profiles indicate that the commercials have a near record short position in the EUR and an historically large long position in the Yen.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, a case can be made for an ultimate break in either direction and I would “respect” and trade any decisive break of this range accordingly (refer below).


Entry: For the remainder of this year only: EURJPY is seen as a Buy on any break above 134.60 and a Sell upon any break below 131.25

Stop: 60 point Stop, initially

Target: 137.40 on the Upside and 128.50 on the downside

Time horizon: Allow several weeks at least for target to be met
EURJPY Daily Chart (click to expand)
EURJPY daily chart
 EURJPY weekly chart (click to expand)
EURJPY Weekly chart
Source: both charts, ThomsonReuters  

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on is found here
20 December
FXKhaos FXKhaos
Have a safe and enjoyable, well deserved break Max. Enjoyed and appreciated your postings throughout 2017. May 2018 be the best year yet, to you and your Loved Ones! Cheers!
20 December
Federigo Federigo
This comment has been redacted
20 December
Patto Patto
Who is this idiot Federigo posting spam on the site ?

I've enjoyed your trade recommendations and articles this year Max. Looking forward to your guidance in 2018.
20 December
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Thanks Patto, clearly someone abusing this forum and looking to promote himself. Pay no regard,
20 December
Logich Logich
@Max McKegg:
" that the commercials have a near record short position in the EUR and an historically large long position in the Yen" - Don´t you mean the opposite? Long Euro and short Yen.
20 December
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Correct, typo
20 December
Cat Cat
Max, thanks for your feedback on this cross. Enjoy your break.
20 December
Morten Olby Morten Olby
Merry Xmas, Max! Thanks for a lot of good recommendations.
20 December
jcsousa jcsousa
Enjoy the holidays Max. Wish you a nice 2018.
20 December
Treve Treve
Great Trade idea Max. Thanks for a superb year on TradngFloor. Looking forward to all your contributions In 2018.
21 December
hisham faour hisham faour
Took this trade yest. Might even add some more @ 135. Confirmation appreciated
21 December
marran marran
i was planning at adding at 135.0 as well
21 December
Tommy Champion Tommy Champion
This comment has been redacted


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail