Video

#SaxoStrats
Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Squawk / 28 June 2012 at 13:00 GMT
Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
EU debt crisis safe haven: We have long been positive on SEK - since Q4 of last year, and with the pending crisis in EZ there is ALL the reason in the world to be long SEK:

1. C/A Surplus
2. Budget Balance
3. Cutting taxes
4. Best Finance Minister in Europe
5. Free floating currency "inside" Europe
6. Small - open economy - meaning flexible labor and SME market

SEK - however is getting to a very big support line, so it's either or from here. See chart below- Source: Bloomberg LLP

Personally, Sweden is the new Switzerland to me- the currency has plenty of medium- to long-term potential and I see 8.6500 as the first target on the down-side....but we need to break the support to confirm.....
7y
DorganG DorganG
Dear Mr. Jakobsen,
We had the same arguments as you in Q4/2011 but we have changed our minds. I quickly created a blog entry http://snbchf.com/?p=1392
to respond to your post.
George Dorgan, main editor of www.snbchf.com
7y
Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
Thank you George - very interesting and some of the facts certainly historically true - the difference here being I think this is different - Europe is moving towards a split up which will hurt Switzerland and core Europe more than Sweden. There are strong banks in Sweden, but they fly below the radar but are still rated among five safetest in the world by Bloomberg... but again I appreciate your view and engagement - this is what makes markets and interesting reading. Please read George's piece its very interesting.
7y
DorganG DorganG
I agree: tradition can change and Sweden has strong fundamentals. Swedish banking is a double-edged sword:
http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/scandinavian-banks-on-safe-ground-but-beware-of-swedish-housing-271587034

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