Trade view /
28 July 2017 at 7:25 GMT
Is this the turn in the USD? Formations would suggest this could well be the case.
Daily – Moving lower in the fifth wave (Elliott wave formation). Our prime support is seen at 92.50-91.73.
Intraday (one-hour) – In a bearish channel formation. It may also be forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders.
Summary – There are two options:
1. Buy USD weakness close to 93.46, looking for the right shoulder to form. This offers far better risk/reward.
2. Buy a break of yesterday’s high confirming the breakout.
GBPUSD monthly –
Seen a move to the upside from the Fibonacci confluence are (at 1.1593-1.1392).
GBPUSD weekly – We look for a fifth wave Elliott wave pattern to have completed at 1.1498. The move higher has been mixed and volatile, which is common in corrective formations.
GBPUSD daily – Broke out of a triangle formation to the upside. The full measured move target for the breakout is 1.3252. It is currently trading within a congestion zone from July-September 2016.
GBPUSD intraday (four-hour) – Building an ending wedge formation. On a break of 1.2990, this formation has a measured move target of 1.2590. Our resistance is seen at 1.3120 today. With a stop placed above the wedge resistance (at 1.3185), this makes for a solid risk/reward medium-term set-up (approximately 6/1 risk/reward).
Management and risk description
The risks to this call are further USD losses and GBPUSD moving to 1.3252.
Entry: Selling GBPUSD at 1.3120.
Stop: Initially 1.3200. A break of 1.2990 and we lower stop to entry.
Time horizon: medium term
— Edited by Clemens Bomsdorf
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