Day trade
Trade view / 08 August 2016 at 7:42 GMT

Ending wedge highlights downward bias for AUDUSD

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – We called a bullish bias in the USD on Friday recommending buying close to the right shoulder support at 95.50. We made a 95.49 low.It's a critical level now for the index as we are against trendline resistance at 96.22. A break here and we look for a higher move towards 96.60 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 96.84 (AB=CD target). Looking to follow the trend this morning. 

USD Index - Intraday
USD Index

Source: Saxo Bank. Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more


I have taken a AUDUSD short and here is why:

Monthly – Still bearish with the whole move from September 2015 considered a fourth wave correction in a bearish Elliott Wave formation. A clear break of the expanding wedge and the target area becomes 0.5000 over the next few years. 
AUDUSD M
Source: Saxo Bank 

Weekly – Doesn’t give away too much. In a corrective channel formation with a Doji style daily candle posted close to the 61.8% pullback level of 0.7570
AUDUSD w
Source: Saxo Bank 

Four hour - Highlights an Ending wedge formation. The target area for this pattern is 0.7420. However, we could see some stalling and profit taking at relevant Fibonacci levels today (161.8% at 0.7553 and 261.8% at 0.7486) as they line up with the wedge base and a previous swing low. 
AUDUSD 4
 Source: Saxo Bank

I am short one unit at 0.7612 and would like to see an hourly close at 1000 GMT below 0.7615 or we could see a higher correction to 0.7638 where I will sell another unit. 

Management and risk description

Parameters

Entry: short 0.7612 and will sell again at 0.7638

Stop: 0.7660

Target: 0.7490 and 0.7420

Time horizon: 1-3 days 

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
08 August
andywielkiszu andywielkiszu
Hi Ian! Your Sl 07645 concerncs first trade, or also this level 0.7638?
08 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
for both Andy
08 August
andywielkiszu andywielkiszu
Thank You Ian!
09 August
Cap21 Cap21
pls advice audusd ! today trade
09 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
this is our trade call today: AUDUSD - Due to an Ending Wedge formation, we continue to treat extended gains with caution. The rally has posted a correction count on the daily chart. Selling posted in Asia. Trend line support is located at 0.7610. Bespoke support is located at 0.7610. A break of 0.7600 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Our profit targets will be 0.7560 and 0.7500

We look to Sell a break of 0.7600 stop at 0.7630
09 August
Cap21 Cap21
great sir
09 August
Cap21 Cap21
thanks so much
09 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
no problem

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