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John J Hardy
UK prime minister Theresa May’s speech on the UK leaving the European Union has fuelled a rally in sterling, but how long will it last? Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy explains.
Squawk / 26 May 2016 at 18:46 GMT
double bottom could signal reversal towards 1250
26 May
fxtime fxtime
upto...1230 first imho and if it fails to pass there then sub 1200!!
FWIW 1206 will be my first long entry for a swing trade but only at 10% and the remainder will probably be 1990 again for a swing trade.
26 May
trading4fun trading4fun
what would be your target on swing trade, then?
27 May
fxtime fxtime
Sounds daft but $2000.....I suspect the dollar will lose buying power.......the majority here suspect it will increase.
27 May
fxtime fxtime
The above is a 3yr forecast/guess/prediction :-)
27 May
trading4fun trading4fun
having a gold cfd contract expiry today, we may see a rebound into a close of those profit taking on shorts
27 May
fxtime fxtime
Would make sense :-)
28 May
trading4fun trading4fun
gold worth of watching! buying into the bell from 1210 , while old CFD contract expiry, might signal trend reversal
29 May
fxtime fxtime
Reckon it should be a good trade mate :-)
30 May
fxtime fxtime
My first XAUUSD trade triggered long this morning at 10% stake size only. Market may drop to $1180 hence small stake percentile but my bias is that the market will bounce!! Medium term trade.
30 May
fxtime fxtime
In the world of Quants ....spot gold is at a point where there is a potential ''fat tail'' risk....or if you want the official title Quantative Risk Management (QRM) event....usually when a market has the potential to suddenly in this case collapse. Floor managers would sarcastically shout something like (and I para-phrase) '' What the QRM occurred;'' etc, etc ! But joking aside there is a real risk on gold at present as 1180 down to 1175 is the last evidenced volume congestion/support area so we do not want a break and close below there. Today is an illiquid day so market variance is of little worth but the rest of the week has plenty of tail risk potential.
30 May
fxtime fxtime
Make sure you trade within your normal stop strategies to ensure you don't make the same shout as a Floor Manager !!
Look at what your stake size is and assume approx $12pt move shows a normal average market move as your average value at risk per day currently but also be very aware that we could drop hard. It isn't what I expect to happen but the potential is there for a sharp drop to 1164.00
30 May
trading4fun trading4fun
tks a lot for all the valuable insight
30 May
fxtime fxtime
I am just being cautious mate....I agree with you that the market could well bounce here but hopefully traders here will see the bigger picture for risk with this market.
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Stop adjusted upwards to secure +$2.00 on spot...presume you've done well too?
31 May
trading4fun trading4fun
double bottom in my idea already signalled the nature of the market despite we went a bit lower but crawled back up....definitely, parience needed while gold trading
31 May
trading4fun trading4fun
bullish hammer on daily chart likely tomact as strong bullish signal
01 June
fxtime fxtime
Agree on patience for gold and on your chart :-)
01 June
trading4fun trading4fun
buying interest comming once again on dip to 1208! so far it proves an importanceo of daily bullish hammer
01 June
fxtime fxtime
To be honest I struggle with candle patterns as there so few these days that have a high confidence/success rate....but it is interesting how you use them as you don't just use the prior day candle. May be I should pay more attention to them :-) Usually the only one I pay attention to is the classic pincer/tweezer pattern from yesteryear period but hey I am old...it's probably the only one I can remember LOL.
Keep posting mate as it is very interesting to see.
01 June
trading4fun trading4fun
i have had great mentors if you have a look at my LinkedIn TF enabled link and experience timeline. I know you since long time ago, remembering TF beta version times, and I even held some chats with you but under different nick. Today, I can see your great progress ;)
01 June
fxtime fxtime
Ah I have just looked at the link and welcome back as your goodself as opposed to the 3c overview. As for my ''great progress''....nah sadly I am just the same as before mate. Great to see you posting here again.
03 June
trading4fun trading4fun
here we go ;)
03 June
fxtime fxtime
Yeah ....i am still long. Although I intend to cover at 1240 and then look to short again.....a good call of yours mate. You certainly got a better b/e than me and will probably earn more pts too :-)
FWIW I tend to look at max ROC for the fastest return and then re-assess my positional stance and I do not believe this is a swing long trade yet. Would like to see 1180 area first for confirmed support !
03 June
trading4fun trading4fun
long shadow doji on hourly at overbought extremes gives a sell signal
03 June
fxtime fxtime
Sorry I've been out to our local beach this afternoon as its sunny, warm and the tide is ''in''so watched NFP then went for a paddle LOL
My target profit level was hit and the trade covered to bank profits. Agree on short however I have only opened a small scale trade short for the moment.Weekends have a habit of spoiling XAUUSD moves imho.
Have a good weekend mate.
06 June
trading4fun trading4fun
for me gold still a sell
06 June
fxtime fxtime
LOL....I too remain short an will scale my trade soon but lets get the silly Yellen factor out the way first. I suspect XAUUSD down for approx 2 weeks then a strong rally at the very least to $1400 by next April and then a a further rally after that IMHO. Initially want sub $1200 though :-)
08 June
trading4fun trading4fun
added on short 1260
08 June
fxtime fxtime
You trading via options? As drawdown for you currently can be large on a near future or spot fx pairing. Trade carefully my friend as this is a crazy commod that can often move further than the depth of your pocket as McMillan once said. Agree on mean reversion though. I will short ONLY if it looks like it will close below 1260.00 last wave high resistance area as a close below that level implies exhaustion of the move etc.
08 June
trading4fun trading4fun
SL in place, knowing gold moves natural bias
08 June
fxtime fxtime
phew...good man :-) Reckon you will make a great return.

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