Article / 21 September 2016 at 9:46 GMT

Dollar-yen gets a nosebleed in the clouds

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom
  • JPY fails inside the Ichimoku test once more
  • For USDJPY, downside is the ultimate direction 
  • We should soon retest 99.00-50 (and 95.00 after that)

By Clive Lambert

One thing the Japanese look at that I always refer to when looking at yen crosses is the Ichimoku "Cloud" charts, and the chart below is compelling with respect to this.

We have been selling off since February. We know that all that time the market has been waiting for a response from the Bank of Japan, and this morning was their latest attempt at said response, and we FAILED in the Cloud AGAIN.

This says that downside is still "the go" for this pair. We should soon retest 99.00-50, and if this area breaks we can think about 95.00 as the next significant target.

NB: One caveat to all of this, of course, is the Fed meeting tonight. All of the above is related to the "JPY" side of this pair. What happens later today is very much about the "USD" element! 

Chart 1: Daily Ichimoku chart showing continued failures on rallies to the "Cloud".
 Source: CQG

Chart 2: The Weekly Cloud chart shows a good hold of the top of the Cloud back in mid 2014. Then a solid break in February that was the catalyst for what's been seen since...
Source: CQG

 – Edited by Clare MacCarthy


Clive Lambert is chief technical analyst at FuturesTechs 

21 September
bancodemon bancodemon
well then...down we go
22 September
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Fed meeting reaction concurred and we have been as low as 100.10 overnight. 101.01 is Marabuzo resistance after yesterday's large red candle.


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