Squawk / 25 November 2012 at 23:41 GMT
Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
Finland
In January Der Spiegel publishes large parts of the secret report prepared by the German intelligence agency BND, proving that the bailout of Cyprus will benefit mostly Russian oligarchs and Italian mafia.

The bailout package does not pass voting in several member states’ parliaments, and Cyprus becomes the first country that has requested but has not received a bailout. ECB’s ELA does not help as deposit runs escalate and a bank holiday is soon announced. Markets realize Spain is not yet in a program and bond yields start rising.

Madrid’s announcements are not believed and the economy grinds to a halt due to demonstrations and strikes. Germany cannot wait until its elections are over, and has to decide: monetize debt, or let the EMU fall. Merkel decides it is better to let Spain and Greece go, and ECB monetizes their TARGET debts.

Draghi resigns and someone from Germany becomes the new head of the ECB. Things look a bit better - until Outrageous Predictions 2014…

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