Steen Jakobsen
The Bank of Japan has abandoned quantitative easing and the European Central Bank may taper its bond-buying programme, so what is the role of central banks in 2017, asks Saxo Bank’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen.
Squawk / 25 May 2016 at 14:51 GMT
Manager / Tashkent designer
Dear Steve,
Please share your views on eurusd, usdcad and oil.
And how you look at dax and cac indices .
It's good if I sell dax and buy cac.
Take care . Miss your strategic calls.
With Regards,
Vanita .
25 May
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
I will look at these for you a little later. I am tied up with telephone calls and teaching at the moment.
25 May
vanita vanita
I agree it's okk sir Steve.
25 May
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
EURUSD: Short-run techs say BUY but go over one week and this pair is a sell. I did post a very long-term sell on EURUSD (not been posted yet). The news on Greece shows how flawed the Eurozone is and ECB policy is staying soft for many months yet to come. So I am a seller with a long-term objective at parity. But if you are a short-tern player there is scope to 1.1174.

WTI: All techs put to one week are BUY with the monthly neutral. Crude futures tested $50 today...last seen in mid-October, before closing near session-highs. The declines in domestic production offset a gain in US gasoline inventories last week.

Please be cautious as EIA said in its "Petroleum Status Report" US commercial crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels for the week ending on May 20 w/w. The problem is that at 537.1 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.

Near term targets at 51.95...then 54.21 and the real make or break is at 62.36.
25 May
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
USDCAD: This is still an oil play as since June 2014 the R Sq is 0.8992. Techs at the front end are geared toward USD strength as the mood for a Fed hike gains substance...but go to go the 5 hour measure and techs run with an oil bull story and favour the CAD to recover.

CAD strengthened against the USD on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.5%. But again I see the USDCAD moving back higher as the US /Canada rate differential will widen. BOC said Q2 growth is expected to be weaker than expected due to the Alberta wildfires. I look for 1.3536.

DAX and CAC ratio is 2.27...i.e. midway in small impulsive that has run since mid October 2015. I am looking at the PMI Manufacturing data from Monday, that has France contracting at 48.3, this was less than expected and the German figure was 52.4...expansion and greater than expected. Next Wednesday there will be the final PMI data for May and I expect it to give the DAX a boost.
26 May
vanita vanita
Thanks Steve for your guidance.
Take care have a nice day.


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