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Ole Hansen
Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes a closer look at topics including Opec, China, Trump and geo-risks as well as other interesting points in the commodities market.
Squawk / 13 November 2017 at 13:37 GMT
Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Crude oil trading close to flat on the day following the release of Opec's "Monthly Oil Market Report". At face value this was a bullish report with the cartel upgrading both global demand growth and the call on how much oil it needs to supply in 2018.
However comparing with similar monthly reports from the IEA and EIA we find that the demand growth was only brought into line with the expectations from the other two. The reason why Opec sees the need for higher production next year is solely down to a very pessimistic outlook for non-Opec production growth of just 0.87m b/d. Back in October before the latest price surge both the IEA and EIA saw non-Opec production growth at 1.5m b/d next year.
The IEA will publish its "Oil Market Report" Tuesday followed by the EIA on November 21.
13 November
TastyTrend TastyTrend
To be sure, none of the numbers above incorporate last week's striking FT report, according to which Saudi Arabia may be hiding 70mm barrels in above ground storage to give the impression of higher demand !!!
13 November
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Later today EIA's monthly drilling productivity report for December is likely to show further increase in shale production. Link: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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