Article / 15 January 2018 at 8:44 GMT

COT: Oil longs, grain shorts and pace of gold buying hits record

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
  • The week to Jan 9 saw a 13% surge on bullish commodity bets
  • The buying was concentrated on crude oil and gold
  • Bearish bets on key crops reached a new record

By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds increased bullish bets across 25 major commodities futures by 13% to 1.7 million lots in the week to January 9. For a third consecutive week the buying was concentrated in energy and precious metals, not least crude oil and gold. Short-covering in sugar and coffee supported a net purchase of soft commodities while bearish bets on key crops reached a new record. 

Speculative positioning in Commodities
The energy sector saw fresh record net-longs in WTI, Brent and NY ULSD. The combined net-long across the four oil and product futures reached 1.4 million lots (1.4 billion barrels) with WTI and Brent accounting for 1.1 million lots. 

Speculative positioning in Crude oil
 
Precious metals including platinum saw strong buying while palladium hit a new record net-long. During the past three weeks funds bought a record 111,000 lots of gold. Last week’s 30% increase was the biggest weekly addition since last August when North Korean uncertainty lifted the yellow metal towards its September peak at $1358 /oz. Platinum turned net-long while a record two-week buying spree in silver helped raise the net-long to a six-week high.

COT on Gold and Silver



The grain sector remained under pressure ahead of the January 12 monthly and quarterly stock report from the USDA. An expected increase in soybeans and corn stocks kept both contracts under pressure. The result turned out to be less bearish for soybeans while a bigger-than-expected stock sent corn and wheat lower. 

WASDE result
 














COT on grains
 

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

 

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

COT on commodities in the week to January 9

18 January
cinci cinci
Thank you for all interesting analysis ! A question: Is the Managed Money Position (MMP) in curde derived from all months ? For example if a hedge fund opens simultaneously 1 long position in December 2018 and 1 short position in March 2018 crude futures then does that appear as one long and one short in your charts for MMPs? Or do you follow just near months ? Thanks again
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