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COT: Oil jumps to record; Gold traders wrong-footed

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
  • All commodity sectors were net bought in week to Nov 28
  • WTI crude oil, gold, soybean meal, cotton and corn were top five
  • Natural gas, soybean oil and wheat were bottom of the pile

By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds were net-buyers of 75,000 lots across 26 commodities futures in the week to November 28. All sectors were net bought with the top five being WTI crude oil, gold, soybean meal, cotton and corn. At the other end of the scale we find natural gas, soybean oil and wheat.
 Speculative positioning in Commodities
 
Table:
Speculative positioning in Commodities
 
Bullish oil bets on WTI and Brent crude oil hit a record 963,000 lots or almost one billion barrels ahead of last Thursday’s Opec and non-Opec meeting in Vienna. The net-long in WTI crude oil jumped by 15% or 52,633 lots, not least due to a strong decline in the gross short.  

Crude oil combined



















The net-long in natural gas slumped by 26%, especially due to a big increase in the gross-short. This occurred just before forecasts shifted dramatically towards colder price supportive weather. 

Gold traders were wrong-footed last week and it helps to explain the sharp price reversal that was seen following the failed attempt to break above $1300/oz. Higher prices up until last Tuesday helped trigger a 15% increase in the net-long toe 204,204 lots, a ten-week high. The combination of longs being added and the shorts were reduced helped drive the long to short ratio to an uncomfortable high of 21.4 to 1. A market this skewed towards higher prices were last seen five years ago. 

Speculative positioning in COMEX Gold futures
 

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

 

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

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Commitments of Traders: Commodities

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