Oil has hit a 15-month high on the back of optimism over the Opec deal which needs to be sorted out by November 30. But, with a record long position building across the combined benchmarks, a disappointment could leave some exposed. Full report to come within the hour....
Article / 06 June 2016 at 9:00 GMT

COT: Gold longs cut by a third ahead of Friday spike

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Bullish commodity bets up by 5% for week ending May 31
  • Net buying highest among grains as soybeans shoots to four-year high
  • Gold net longs cut by one third ahead of NFP report
  • Gold rose to above $1,240/oz in aftermath of dismal NFP

WTI settled into a tight range ahead of last Thursday's Opec meeting. Photo: iStock

By Ole Hansen

Funds increased bullish commodity bets by 5% to 1.17 million lots of futures and options during the week ending May 31. As the table below shows, the buying was concentrated among grains and the soy complex.

Corn net-longs doubled while soybeans it hit the highest in almost four years.

The energy sector was pretty quiet with WTI crude settling into a relative tight range ahead of the Opec meeting last Thursday. Most noticeable was the fact that both long and short positions were reduced ahead of this potential key risk event.

The counter seasonal reduction in distillate inventories during the past few weeks has driven bullish bets on Ny Harbour ULSD to the highest in almost two years.

Speculative positioning in Commodities
Relative small changes last week with the exception of corn where the net-long doubled. 

Speculative positioning in Commodities
Dollar strength and US rate hike speculation has seen the net-long in gold plummet by one-third during the past three weeks.

During this period, however, longer term and less tactical investors continued to accumulate gold through exchange-traded products.

Friday’s surprisingly weak US job report triggered a scramble to reinstate long positions and it helped gold settle above the key technical level at $1240/oz.

Speculative positioning in COMEX Gold futures
Continued strong demand for gold during May through exchange-traded products was not to off-set a one-third reduction from hedge funds.

The net-long in sugar reached a new record high with the short base continuing to be dwindle. Sugar rallied 7% last week to settle at the highest level since June 2014.

The rally has been driven by rain in Brazil which has slowed harvest and port loadings, thereby adding to global supply concerns. 

Speculative positioning in Sugar
— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Ole Hansen is head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank
Download document

Commitments of Traders: Commodities


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail