Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines the big issues over the next few days for the markets including why Banco de México is a central bank meeting to watch.
Article / 11 July 2016 at 7:36 GMT

COT: Funds dollar buying yet to hit pre-Brexit levels

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank


Dollar buying is yet to return to pre-Brexit levels. Photo: iStock

By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds turned small net-buyers of dollars during the week ending July 5. But with the gross long at just $5.7 billion, it remains below the level seen before the Brexit vote.

Speculative IMM currency positioning
Five of the eight currency futures tracked in this saw a reduction in the gross short exposure while the gross long increased in all apart from CHF. 

Speculative IMM currency positioning
EUR remains the least wanted with the net-short jumping by 22% to a near four-month high, this ahead of the strong US job report last Friday.

Speculative positioning in IMM EUR
The gross long and short position in IMM Euro futures jumped to a 7-month high which indicates a great deal of uncertainty. This is likely to ensure continued volatility during the coming weeks. 

Gross position in IMM EUR
Other highlights

  • The AUD turned net-long again for the first time since May 17. 
  • Some bottom fishing was seen in GBP with both long positions rising. The short, however, rose even stronger leaving the net-long down on the week. 
  • The continued rise of the JPY has seen the net-long rise in four out of the last five weeks. 

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Ole Hansen is head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank

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