Article /
23 April 2018 at 8:01 GMT
COT: Energy and metal buying lift bullish bets to four-week high
- Bullish commodity bets up 4% to 2.1 million lots in week to April 17
- Trend driven by broad-based buying of energy and metals
- The buying more than offset slight selling in grains and livestock
By Ole Hansen
The total open interest across 22 major commodity futures exceeded 20 million lots for the first time as the demand from producers to traders and speculators continues its revival. The nominal value was 1.09 trillion, not far from the record 1.15 trillion reached in September 2013.
Crude oil was mixed with the continued geopolitical risk surge attracting profit taking in Brent crude while lifting the net-long in WTI crude oil. Overall the combined net-long rose to 1.1 million lots, a three-week high. The combined gross short meanwhile slumped to just 65k lots, a four-year low, and it highlights one of the biggest downside risks to oil should the flow of price supportive news dry up.
A range-bound gold only managed to attract small buying interest with traders instead finding a better opportunity in silver. Silver’s record short was cut by 60% in response to the improved outlook as it benefited from the tailwind seen across other industrial metals. The 2.5% surge last Wednesday is likely to attracted additional short covering while inviting new longs on board.
The Russian sanctions-related surge in aluminium and nickel supported a second week of HG copper buying. The net-long increased by 60% to 22,478 lots, a five week high.
Grains were mixed as we enter the important crop planting season. Soybeans were bought following four weeks of light selling while the corn net-long was cut by 21%.
Speculators buying cocoa for a 13th consecutive week resulting in the net-long reaching a 38 month high. Some searching for a top was seen with the gross short rising to a nine-week high.
Arabica coffee meanwhile remained under pressure with short selling accelerating to reach to a record 70,711 lots.
– Edited by Clare MacCarthy
Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank
24 April
Hello Ole. I'd like to ask you something. If OI is on record level since roughly 6 years, why Value of open interest (VoOI) is still lagging? Is it because of in OI there are also mini-contract counted into OI table?
24 April
In fact I would expect direct relation (like positive correlation) between OI (open contracts) and their value.....
25 April
Hi MP. Pure and simple due to the current lower prices on many commodities compared to the previous peak. Not least oil which traded quite a bit higher.
25 April
Hello Ole. My thoughts were about standardised price of Contract(s) projected into OI. But of course Value must reflect actual commodities prices. Thanks.
