Sterling has been dented by the risk of a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May. Meanwhile, oil remains bid on persistent Saudi Arabian tensions, and the "old correlation" is back between yields and equities.
Article / 06 June 2016 at 7:48 GMT

COT: Dollar buying continued ahead of US job report

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Hedge fund buying of dollars continued in runup to NFP shocker
  • Bullish dollar bets on the slide since Friday's report
  • JPY, CHF and AUD among the net sold
  • JPY approaching neutral position for first time since January

By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds were net buyers of dollars against eight IMM currency futures throughout May. The buying continued up until last Tuesday with the gross long rising by one-quarter. This was just three days before the weak US job report on Friday which helped send the dollar tumble and forced the reduction of bullish dollar bets.
Five out of the eight IMM currency futures tracked in this were net sold, most noticeably the JPY, CHF and AUD.  

Speculative IMM currency positioning
The JPY was sold for a sixth week with the net-long rapidly approaching a neutral position for the first time since January.

CAD bucked the trend with the buying of 6,212 lots taking the net-long to the highest since February 2013.

EUR long and short positions both increased leaving the net almost unchanged 

Speculative IMM currency positioning

Funds maintain a net-short position in sterling ahead of the Brexit vote later this month. Last week the net remained unchanged with both long and short positions being reduced.

Charts and tables attached. 

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Ole Hansen is head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank
Download document



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail