Article / 04 July 2016 at 7:26 GMT

COT: Bullish gold and silver bets surge to new record high

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Commodities sold during first week after Brexit vote
  • Corn and wheat saw heavy long liquidation
  • Gold and copper were in strong demand
By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds were net-sellers of commodities during the week ending June 28. Heavy long liquidation of corn and wheat together with major selling of WTI crude more than offset continued buying of metals, not least gold and copper.

Speculative positioning in Commodities
Selling of grains and crude oil offset continued demand for metals:
Speculative positioning in Commodities

Gold surged higher in the aftermath of the Brexit vote and despite the hiking of the futures margin by 22% last Monday and signs of profit taking the net-long still jumped by 6% to a new record of 273,000 lots.

Speculative positioning in COMEX Gold futures

Bullish silver bets also hit a new record high last Tuesday. This was just before the price surged 11% ahead of the weekend.
Speculative positioning in COMEX Silver futures

Platinum was net sold as the discount to gold hit a record $350. This relative cheapness together with the surge in silver helped attract buyers and by Friday the discount had narrowed to $282.

Crude oil initially sold of following Brexit and this helped trigger a 26% jump in gross short positions with the net-long falling to a 16-week low. Short-covering and not new buying were probably the main reason behind the subsequent rally back towards $50/b.

Speculative positioning in WTI Crude oil

Corn was net-sold for a second week but remained elevated ahead of the June 30 acreage report which helped extend a two-day slump to 18%

Weather developments in Brazil together with the strengthening of the BRL to a one-year high helped drive the sugar net-long to a new record high while bullish coffee bets hit a 19-month high. Following the reduction in grain exposures last week the current sugar long now equates to one-third of the total agriculture fund position.

Speculative positioning in Sugar
– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. His Twitter account was cited by MarketWatch as one that investors should follow in 2016.

Download document

Commitments of Traders: Commodities


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail