Article / 20 November 2017 at 8:51 GMT

COT: Broad-based commodity buying led by WTI, natural gas, and sugar

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Bullish commodity bets across 26 futures increased  by 7%
  • Buying was broad-based and led by WTI crude oil, natural gas and sugar
  • The oil sector was mixed while gold was bought for a second week
 Natural gas was a primary driver of the advance in bullish bets. Pic: Shutterstock

By Ole Hansen

Hedge funds increased bullish commodity bets across 26 futures by 7% to 1.8 million lots in the week to November 14. Buying was broad-based and led by WTI crude oil, Natural gas and sugar with a few exceptions, most noticeably, soybeans and corn.

Speculative positioning in Commodities
Speculative positioning in Commodities
The oil sector was mixed with the net-long in WTI crude oil reaching an 8-month high while Brent crude oil saw the record long being reduced for the first time in five weeks. WTI buying was driven by short covering while selling in Brent came from fresh short selling. Overall, the combined crude oil net long reached 918,000 lots, just 10,000 lots below the February 21 record. 

Speculative positioning in Crude oil
Both products of RBOB gasoline and Ny harbor ULSD (diesel) reached new record highs. Not least ULSD where the net-long at 72,000 is 60% above previous records recorded between 2012 and 2014. 

Speculative positioning in oil products
Gold was bought for a second week as the metal continued to find support towards $1270/oz. The support has come from US tax reform concerns and not least the potential reduction of an elevated IMM JPY net-short (see COT on FX Update). Funds have remained resilient throughout the months-long correction with current positions in gold and silver both being around 68% of the one-year high. 

Speculative positioning in gold and silver futures

Funds continued to exit long bets on HG Copper as concerns about Chinese growth and winter demand sapped confidence in higher prices.

The combined short across the three main crops expanded to 327,000 lots. Not least due to a record short in CBOT corn of 232,000 lots. This after the new front month of March slumped to a fresh low below $3.50/Bu.

COT on crops
Soft commodities, led by sugar, witnessed its strongest week of buying since June 2015. The technical breakout to the upside for sugar helped trigger a 68% reduction in the net-short. Following ten weeks of buying and a 20% rally since September funds finally turned net-long on cocoa last week.  

COT on soft commodities

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy


Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

(Commitments of Traders: Commodities)


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail