John J Hardy
Stay ahead of FX developments by joining Saxo Bank Head of Forex Strategy John Hardy for his regular update. John looks at what’s happening with all major currency pairs like EURUSD and USDJPY and how they might be impacted by market moving events. He also explores ways to seize trading opportunities.
Article / 09 April 2018 at 7:36 GMT

COT: Big USD short maintained, record short in US 10-year notes

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Selling of EUR, CAD and AUD being off-set by buying of GBP and JPY
  • The net-short in US 10-yr notes reached a record 550,000 lots
  • Speculators turned net-short in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 
The dollar short against nine IMM currency futures remained unchanged. Photo: Shutterstock

By Ole Hansen

In the week to April 3 the speculative dollar short against nine IMM currency futures remained close to unchanged meaning a gross-short at the highest since August 2011. Selling of EUR, CAD and AUD was being off-set by buying of GBP and JPY with traders turning net-long the latter for the first time since November 2016.

Speculative IMM currency positioning

Speculative positioning in bonds and stock index futures
Leveraged funds sold all long dated maturities which resulted in the DV01 being the dollar value of one basis point change rising to $191 million, the highest in at least one year.

DV01 of US bond futures
The net-short in US 10-yr notes reached a record 550,000 lots thereby outstripping two previous peaks around 400,000 lots in 2010 and 2015.  
COT on 10-year notes
In equities speculators turned net-short in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq while the Dow just managed to hold onto small net-long.

The VIX net-long rose by 6% ahead of the trade tension carnage that followed the day after data was collected. 

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

COT in week to April 3: Non-commercial IMM dollar position

Download document

COT on bonds, stocks and VIX futures in week to April 3


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail