Global markets are reeling this morning after the US president trumped his previously announced tariffs on $50bn worth of Chinese imports with the threat of another $200bn worth should the Chinese retaliate with penalties of their own on his initial tariffs. The heightened fear of a full-blown trade war has slammed into equities and EM currencies with the usual safe-haven assets – gold, bonds and the Swiss franc – gaining.
Article / 04 September 2017 at 7:33 GMT

COT: AUD, JPY bought in week with only small changes — #SaxoStrats

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Week to August 29 saw muted activity in IMM currency futures
  • Industrial metals rally drives continued demand for IMM AUD
  • Market gauging impact of US tax and debt ceiling talks
Industrial metals
The China-driven industrial metals rally is boosting IMM AUD futures. Photo: Shutterstock

By Ole Hansen

The non-commercial dollar short against eight IMM currency futures was close to unchanged in the week to August 29. Only small changes occurred as the market tried to gauge the impact of tax and debt ceiling discussions in the US, as well as North Korea and raised concerns within the European Cenral Bank about the euro's rapid rise.

Speculative IMM currency positioning

The biggest changes were the continued short-covering in IMM JPY and buying of IMM AUD...
Speculative IMM currency positioning

The China-driven rally among industrial metals, including iron ore, attracted continued demand for IMM AUD. The net-long has been rising continuously for the past three months and last week reached the highest since April 2013.

Speculative positioning in IMM AUD

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Ole Hansen is head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank 
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Commitments of Traders: IMM currency non-commercial positions

04 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Leveraged funds turned the least bearish on US stock index futures this year. While the net position in Nasdaq 100 mini turned negative for the first time in 15 months buying of S&P 500 saw its net-short cut by one-third to 78,000 lots, the lowest since December 2014


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