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Short term
Trade view / 13 July 2016 at 7:34 GMT

Correlation, wave patterns highlight a top for GBPUSD

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: GBPUSD
Price target:
Market price:
Background

I think that GBPUSD is reaching a temporary high, and here is why... (we have the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow so this is a high-risk trade). 

Monthly: Highlights dip buying but, we have 12 trading days until month-end, so little notice should be taken of this. The 78.6% pullback level from the 1.0362-2.1161 is seen at 1.2673 and is the next downside barrier. 

GBPUSD M

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Source: Saxo Bank

Daily: After dip buying on Tuesday, and a bullish Outside Day posted, we continued to the upside yesterday. Bespoke resistance is seen at 1.3361 with a previous barrier zone seen at 1.3495. 

It should be noted that we only need to see a daily close below 1.3361 for the bespoke barrier to be intact. 

GBPUSD D Source: Saxo Bank

One hour: Highlights an Ending Wedge close to bespoke resistance. It should also be noted that we have a possible five wave count (Elliott Wave) but it is unclear where the first wave starts! 

We have noted both sequences. We are breaking the wedge as I write. With bespoke support at 1.3217 (close to the start of the wedge) we may well bounce from this level and form a bearish Head and Shoulders (15-minute chart).

GBPUSD 1
Source: Saxo Bank

DeMark: Has posted an exhaustion 13 count on the one-hour chart. 

EURGBP: Using correlation EURGBP is near exhaustion. We have a 261.8% extension at 0.8271 (from 0.8626-0.8490). We have bespoke support at 0.8320. Again, a daily close above this level and it is regarded to be intact (solid support). 

EURGBP 1
Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

If selling at the market you need to be happy to add in on rallies. We will keep you updated if other formations emerge.

Parameters

Entry: sell at 1.3350.

Stop: 1.3450.

Target: 1.2950 and 1.2680.

Time horizon: this week.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on forex click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
13 July
assi assi
Morning Ian, if the pictue is clear for you please advice (GBPJPY)...thanks
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
the picture is never that clear ;-) we are selling a break of the overnight low for a move towards 136.30 (first)
13 July
assi assi
GBPJPY...just close the gap from 24/06
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
thanks assi ... DeMark 13 count on the one hour now .... need a topping formation now
13 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Hi Ian, is this trade GBPUSD still a go?
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes it is still technically correct.... I prefer EURGBP long at the moment after this mornings price action
13 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
what are the parameters for EURGBP trade?
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am buying close to market... want a daily close above 0.8323... might take some at 0.8395 or run tomorrow with a stop at entry (hopefully)
13 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
what's your SL?
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
the daily close below (the above) or 0.8300
13 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
thanks
13 July
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
got a fib 0.8375 here and correction count so taking profit then will reenter on a pullback signal
13 July
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
nice trade

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