Short term
Trade view / 18 June 2017 at 23:47 GMT

Complex correction may be over for EURUSD, rally may follow

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: EURUSD
Price target: 1.1278
Market price: 1.1200

This week is light on hard economic data releases in the US and the Eurozone. That will leave the stage to Federal Reserve Open Market Committee members to give their views on monetary policy at various forums over the next few days. Market pricing suggests an 13% chance the FOMC will raise the Fed funds rate again in September, although some members may start to get cold feet and express reservations as they reflect on the disappointing inflation data released last week.
For the Eurozone, the main data releases are of the “soft” variety (that is, survey results) but the European Central Bank's quarterly Bulletin, to be published on Thursday, will give some background to in-house thinking on the economic outlook.

Management and risk description

The euro may have completed a complex (“irregular”) Elliott Wave corrective structure on last week’s low at 1.1135 (see daily chart below) and whilst finding support today at 1.1175/1.1160, there is opportunity for the euro to rally back toward key 1.295 resistance.

Once this resistance level is cleared, the EURUSD uptrend will probably extend toward the mid/late 1.1400s over the coming days.


Entry: Today: EURUSD is seen as a Buy at 1.1175/1.1160.

Stop: just under 1.1140, initially.

Target: 50% at 1.1278 and 50% at 1.1463.

Time horizon: Allow a few weeks for both targets to be met.

Daily EURUSD chart (click to expand)
EURUSD daily chart

Source: ThomsonReuters

Weekly EURUSD chart (click to expand)
EURUSD weekly chart

Source: ThomsonReuters 

— Edited by Robert Ryan

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Morris Morris
The 8 hour chart show a potential 5 wave Elliot's structure with an upward target of 1.1247.
John Roberti John Roberti
Max, If I remember correctly you indicated last week that you were expecting NZDUSD to go down! It went from 73,50 to 71,80 and now back to 72,67 do you continue to foresee NZD USD going down or coming back up again? Your opinion would be appreciated
Max McKegg Max McKegg
welcome to request my latest Forecasts
sutiani sutiani
low is 1.1140 or 1.1139 still open position?thank you
Max McKegg Max McKegg
closing out on this Bounce


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