Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry warns that US stocks could face further turmoil with 2,575 perhaps the key, make-or-break level in the benchmark S&P 500 index.
Article / 12 December 2012 at 10:15 GMT

Commodity momentum: Wheat at a five-month low

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank

The price of CBOT Wheat crashed through support at USD 8.5 per bushel yesterday and thereby left behind the trading channel within which it has been trading since late July. Increase global inventories helped relieve some of the upside price pressure which has been created by reduced exports from the Black Sea region and recent reports about the poor state of US Mid West winter crop. 

Elsewhere the momentum indicator is unchanged from yesterday with only platinum, copper and soybeans holding on to positive momentum. Coffees negative momentum has slowed after finding support below 146.5 but the 46 days spent in this trend is currently the longest followed by platinums 20 days spent having positive momentum.

Momentum indicator

Miguel Levy Aires Miguel Levy Aires
Hi Ole. I would like to know your opinion about Coffee. I'm leaning to buy it, in technical perspective, beacause it's been building a good base since November. But i don't know what is the current fundamentals situation. Many tks
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Hi Miguel, coffee has been under some pressure due to abundant supplies during which time the speculative net-short position has risen to the highest level since late 2003, currently at 26,293 if you look at money managers only. This obviously leaves the contract exposed to a sharp reversal once the fundamental and/or technical picture improves. If you have the patience i suppose it makes sense to wait for a break out of the current channel to get technical signal. If thats not the case a tight stop should be applied just below the bottom of the same channel given the fact that it still points towards further weakness despite the slowing negative momentum.
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
The reason why the tight stop is required you can see on the attached. Because while we have seen the net-short increase the gross long have also increased to the highest since May 2011. These longs will have to bail or at least reduce should the downward move continue.
Miguel Levy Aires Miguel Levy Aires
Many thanks for the insight! Very helpfull! Tight stop shall be... I like the divergence in the RSI, but a stop is very wise.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail