Article / 20 December 2012 at 9:49 GMT

Commodity momentum slowing as holiday calm approaches

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank

In this last update before Christmas we find that negative momentum in energy is slowing while positive momentum in platinum and copper is also slowing in response to the current weakness seen in silver and gold. Grain markets have given back some of the gains witnessed during the year with both soybeans and corn selling off over the last couple of days.

Commodity momentum

dahu73 dahu73
Hi Ole,
What's your expectations and views for the US grain market (esp. corn and wheat) in the very beginning of the year?
Do you think that the current sell-off is only due to the year end and some profits taken?
Look forward to reading you.
Season's greeting from Switzerland.

Just now
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Grain market prices have all retraced during the last month, not least corn which yesterday fell over its own cliff (718) following a report from a US private forecaster who raised the US 2013 corn acreage to 99 mio acres, the largest since1936. Wheat followed corn lower making it more attractive to foreign buyers considering the dollar weakness in recent days. Going into 2013 some of the worries about supplies have relaxed as demand rationing has helped to preserve low levels of stock. We are however only one bad spring (repeat of 2012) away from seeing higher prices again. On that basis, given the already considerable correction, further downside from here begin to look less likely. Speculative investors have been forced to throw in the towel and while that is ongoing potential buyers might as well sit on the fence. Happy holidays.


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