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Article / 20 October 2017 at 8:28 GMT

China’s credit impulse is reaching a new low – #SaxoStrats

Head of Macro Analysis / Saxo Bank
France
  • China’s credit impulse declined by no less than 25% y-o-y
  • In mid-2018 China will go through a significant slowdown
  • China is reorienting credit towards innovation and productivity
  • China’s new mantra: do more with less

China
 To do more with less you've got to think differently. Photo: testin/Shutterstock

By Christopher Dembik

New GDP data has been published allowing us to update our in-house Credit Impulse Index for China. This index tracks the flow of new credit issued by the private sector as a percentage of GDP.

Credit Impulse
 
It appears that China’s credit impulse declined by no less than 25% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, therefore reaching a new post-crisis low.

This index leads the real economy by 9 to 12 months, meaning that in mid-2018 China will go through a significant slowdown. It is, at least partially, the result of the Chinese strategy of stricter control over the banking system and reorientation of credit towards innovation and productivity at the expense of industrial overcapacity.

Gradually moving towards a tightening stance

The shift towards credit restriction has started since the second part of 2016. Since then, China’s monetary policy has been moving towards a tightening stance. The PBoC has especially relied on Medium-term Lending rates to manage liquidity more efficiently. As a consequence, since the beginning of 2017, MLF rates (graph below) have been raised twice, from 2.85% to 3.05% for 6-Month rate and from 3% to 3.20% for 1-Year rate. 

Med-term
 

The 7-day repo rate, which represents a pertinent liquidity indicator for China, has also moved higher since the end of 2016 to a monthly average of 3.15% in September 2017 versus 2.55% in September 2016.

Credit tightening is mostly aimed at: 1) pushing lower credit growth but especially mortgage loans and loans from rural banks; and 2) curbing further shadow banking and wealth management products. However, credit restriction is not a one-way direction. We expect some slight adjustments in the course of 2018 as a result of lower growth. The PBoC could adopt a more targeted approach, as it has recently suggested, by cutting by 50 basis points the RRR for banks that provide loans to SMEs, start-ups, farmers and the poorest. Such a cut would be another step in the direction of credit control to support government-favored sectors and promote more qualitative growth.

In addition, we expect the 7-day repo rate will play a greater role as a benchmark for monetary policy to the detriment of the RRR due to its numerous advantages, such as: stabilising the money market, providing an efficient source of money market funding or as an easy to use tool for central bank.

More credit needed for less growth

The wall of debt in China (graph below) remains, of course, a tremendous challenge but our mistake, as Westerners, is that we overfocus on the problem of debt (labelled mostly in local currency!) and barely pay attention to the fast-growing green and technological revolution.

wall of debt
Since the great financial crisis, China has understood that more credit is needed for less growth than before. Historically, the uncontrolled accumulation of credit has almost always led to financial collapse.  

The only way to deal with a large stock of debt (reaching 256.9% of China’s GDP in Q1 2017) is to reach a high level of growth. To achieve this, the only rational policy is to innovate in order to increase productivity.

This is China’s new mantra: do more (in terms of growth) with less (credit) but more innovation.

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Christopher Dembik is head of macro analysis at Saxo Bank 
2y
fxtime fxtime
Hopefully China will not adopt the Western World way of handling debt by seeking cyclical wage inflation to depreciate existing debt and thus have an ever expanding debt cycle followed by debt depreciating policies followed by an expanding debt cycle followed by wage expansion.......etc etc fiscal prudence is an area lost on the western world currently.

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