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The European trading session opens today with the euro bashed lower by fresh fears that the proposed Grand Coalition in Germany won't happen; the Mexican peso ahead on hope of a "softer" Trump approach to NAFTA; buoyant equity performance in Asia and an emerging likelihood that the commodity metals and energy rally will run out of steam.
Short term
Trade view / 24 May 2016 at 8:58 GMT

Chart shows USDJPY set for further downside

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:

We have seen a modest recovery for this pair in recent weeks, but we regarded this as merely retracement and expected to see sellers return. It broke a short-term uptrend line on the chart yesterday and broke support at 109.50-60. This area is being retested this morning and is finding sellers at first blush (evidenced by a Shooting Star pattern on the 30-minute chart). We would suggest joining these sellers.

Management and risk description

Stop should be moved to entry on a break below yesterday's 109.10 low.


Entry: Sell below 109.60.

Stop: Above 110.05 initially.

Targets: 107.50 then 105.60, the latter being the May 3 low.

Time horizon: 1-2 weeks.

USDJPY daily candlestick chart showing recovery followed by renewed selling
Source CQG Inc 

USDJPY weekly bar chart
Source CQG Inc

— Edited by John Acher

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more

brian1983 brian1983
i am bullish on usd jpy. Friday night we hv yellen speaking. a hawkish tone shld allow uj to test 110.9 and a cfm by yellen tat rate hike is on the table shld send usd jpy to 112 easily next wk. i do nt see any strong reason for shorting usd jpy now. strong support is seen at 109-109.2
brian1983 brian1983
change of plan: I will book my uj profit in abt an hr time after US home sales. But will look to long back uj on Friday morning in anticipation of yellen speech.
brian1983 brian1983
I would prefer to short usd jpy when it is above 110...
Jim Earls Jim Earls
Rising bearish wedge within a longer-term downtrend.
JakubSzalaFX JakubSzalaFX
At the moment we got broad USD strenght.
Jim Earls Jim Earls
USDJPY making lower highs and lower lows.
Alejo76 Alejo76
it seems you are wrong so far
brian1983 brian1983
I exit uj long and short at 110. tmr there is no high impact usd news other than crude oil inventories. so I see profit taking and for buyers to return uj must go on dip first. But I will definitely buy usd jpy on Thur and Fri.
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Indeed Alejo76. This trade hasn't gone my way. Time to cut losses and hit the sidelines. Will take another look tomorrow.
brian1983 brian1983
For usdjpy, hrly RSI has reached above 70. it is a bit overbought based on a medium impact home sales. i would buy usdjpy on dip when it is 109.5-109.6 level. there is no high impact news for both usd n jpy tomorrow so hope to see some usdjpy pullback
Smakodak Smakodak
Hi Clive, i don't like the price action in USDJPY, It looks as if "someone" is trying til squeze everybody out, in order for the pair to calm down before the juni fomc meating. Thats said, i'm bearish and agree on your downside targets. Do you still favour to short USDJPY and would you still sell below 109.60 or has your level moved ? Thanks in advance


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