Short term
Trade view / 24 May 2016 at 8:58 GMT

Chart shows USDJPY set for further downside

Technical Analyst / FuturesTechs
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:
Background

We have seen a modest recovery for this pair in recent weeks, but we regarded this as merely retracement and expected to see sellers return. It broke a short-term uptrend line on the chart yesterday and broke support at 109.50-60. This area is being retested this morning and is finding sellers at first blush (evidenced by a Shooting Star pattern on the 30-minute chart). We would suggest joining these sellers.


Management and risk description

Stop should be moved to entry on a break below yesterday's 109.10 low.

Parameters

Entry: Sell below 109.60.

Stop: Above 110.05 initially.

Targets: 107.50 then 105.60, the latter being the May 3 low.

Time horizon: 1-2 weeks.



USDJPY daily candlestick chart showing recovery followed by renewed selling
USDJPY Daily
Source CQG Inc 

USDJPY weekly bar chart
USDJPY Weekly
Source CQG Inc


— Edited by John Acher

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more

1y
brian1983 brian1983
i am bullish on usd jpy. Friday night we hv yellen speaking. a hawkish tone shld allow uj to test 110.9 and a cfm by yellen tat rate hike is on the table shld send usd jpy to 112 easily next wk. i do nt see any strong reason for shorting usd jpy now. strong support is seen at 109-109.2
1y
brian1983 brian1983
change of plan: I will book my uj profit in abt an hr time after US home sales. But will look to long back uj on Friday morning in anticipation of yellen speech.
1y
brian1983 brian1983
I would prefer to short usd jpy when it is above 110...
1y
Jim Earls Jim Earls
Rising bearish wedge within a longer-term downtrend.
1y
JakubSzalaFX JakubSzalaFX
At the moment we got broad USD strenght.
1y
Jim Earls Jim Earls
USDJPY making lower highs and lower lows.
1y
Alejo76 Alejo76
it seems you are wrong so far
1y
brian1983 brian1983
I exit uj long and short at 110. tmr there is no high impact usd news other than crude oil inventories. so I see profit taking and for buyers to return uj must go on dip first. But I will definitely buy usd jpy on Thur and Fri.
1y
Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Indeed Alejo76. This trade hasn't gone my way. Time to cut losses and hit the sidelines. Will take another look tomorrow.
1y
brian1983 brian1983
For usdjpy, hrly RSI has reached above 70. it is a bit overbought based on a medium impact home sales. i would buy usdjpy on dip when it is 109.5-109.6 level. there is no high impact news for both usd n jpy tomorrow so hope to see some usdjpy pullback
1y
Smakodak Smakodak
Hi Clive, i don't like the price action in USDJPY, It looks as if "someone" is trying til squeze everybody out, in order for the pair to calm down before the juni fomc meating. Thats said, i'm bearish and agree on your downside targets. Do you still favour to short USDJPY and would you still sell below 109.60 or has your level moved ? Thanks in advance

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail