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Dembik Christopher
In 1981, the French stock market dipped in fears over François Mitterrand’s presidency win and the same could happen again, says Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik.
Squawk / 08 July 2016 at 21:14 GMT
Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
By the New York close today, the US stock market had hit a record high and long-dated bonds record lows, all caused by the crap shoot that is the US jobs report. As the Bloomberg chart below shows, the S&P 500 closed at a record high on a total return basis (i.e incl.dividends) and just short on a price basis while the 30 year Treasury bond made a new closing low of 2.09%.

With bond yields not responding to the big jobs number, the USD was also largely unmoved. The odds of a rate hike by the Fed this year increased to 25% – see chart below.

All in all a strange day: stock traders excited; bond and FX dealers not impressed.

We’ll see what the Fed makes of it next week.


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