Day trade
Trade view / 03 October 2016 at 6:00 GMT

Buying dips in EURCHF offers good risk/reward

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Background

EURCHF monthly – Twenty months of Inside Bars. No real surprise here after the aggressive selloff in January 2015 after the Swiss National Bank removed the 1.2000 barrier.
The next upside resistance is the 38.2% pullback level of 1.1498 (from 1.6827-0.8205)

EURCHF yearly chart

EURCHF M
Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – Two formations to note here. We are in a bullish channel formation and an expanding wedge. Both offer an upside bias. For the last ten weeks we have hold within Ichimoku Cloud resulting in daily results being mixed. Trend line resistance at 1.1054.

EURCHF yearly chart
EURCHF W
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – We had sharp buying on Friday at the Fibonacci confluence area of 1.0816-1.0810 (50% pullback and 161.8% extension).

This was also the base of a deep Ichimoku Cloud. The end result was a bullish Outside Day that offers an upward bias going into this week.

EURCHF monthly chart

EURCHF D
Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (four-hour chart) – Holding within an Expanding Wedge formation that has an eventual bias to break higher.

However, we have stalled close to the previous swing high at 1.0913, an area that has been solid resistance in August. There is scope for a move down toward previous support at 1.0852, and possibly forming a right shoulder in a bullish reverse Head and Shoulders pattern on Monday.

This is our prime long entry area and offers great risk/reward.

GBPCHF daily chart

EURCHF 4
Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

A move through 1.0915 and we move stop to entry.

Parameters

Entry: Buying close to 1.0855.

Stop: 1.0810.

Target: short term 1.0955 (wedge top),  medium term 1.1490 (38.2% pullback).



— Edited by Adam Courtenay

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
03 October
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
HI Ian, do expect EURGBP will go upper? (seems to be EUR could be stronger)
03 October
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Morning . I still think we could post a bearish Head and Shoulders
03 October
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian good day got a signal this mroning on GBPUSD got short at 1.2944 moved SL to entry great one. What are your thoughts on this one ? what would be a first resistance to take money out ?
03 October
AlexF AlexF
How would you find area of resistance as it is making new lows which tool do you use finobacci projection/retracement ?
03 October
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Well done... 1.2847 trend line support (don't think it will hold). 261.8% is not until 1.2643
03 October
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
we have a system we built... 1.2910 to the topside
03 October
AlexF AlexF
ok so TP 1.2643, could see a rebound at 1.28 as per below CABLE: Breaks below $1.2850 to extend slippage to $1.2846. Next band of support
suggested between $1.2820/00, though some tech traders view the break of $1.2866
as exposing the post Brexit low of $1.2798(Jul6).
03 October
AlexF AlexF
Got another signal to sell 1.286 15 minutes ago GBPUSD
03 October
Bullionaire Bullionaire
what stop ? 1.2910 ?
03 October
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
well done Alex
03 October
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian interesting action on USDJPY what level woudl confirm a real...move higher ?
03 October
AlexF AlexF
We are at clouds and several resistance on USDJPY but looking strong at 101.6
03 October
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
101.83 is trend line resistance
03 October
AlexF AlexF
Observing for now so many false start but this week could be it as a lote of US data and NFP

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