Article / 20 June 2016 at 10:43 GMT

Brexit poll: Should they stay or should they go now?

Former managing editor, / Saxo Bank


Time to decide which bus you're getting on. Photo: iStock

By Martin O'Rourke

The Brexit referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union takes place on Thursday and while a weekend poll indicated a clear tilt towards the 'Remain' side, it is by no means conclusive.

The YouGov poll for The Sunday Times edged the 'Remain' vote to 44%, downgraded the 'Leave' vote to 43% and significantly boosted the 'Undecided' camp.

That subtle shift in voter preferences has been backed up by the findings of other surveys since the tragic murder of Labour MP and remain-campaigner Jo Cox last week and contrasts sharply with Survation data on June 16 — the day of the attack on Ms Cox — that had 'Leave' at 45% and 'remain' on 42%.

But the swing is clearly not decisive. Our very own Brexit poll on the dedicated Brexit page might currently have a 64% preference in favour of the UK waking up Friday still firmly embedded at the heart of the EU bosom but there is sufficient uncertainty still for this to change as we hit the final straight.

Saxo Bank's head of forex strategy John J Hardy was at pains to point out that "this is still a very uncertain outcome" in Saxo Bank's daily global market call and the sharp rise in GBPUSD above 1.46 in the Asian session might just be a tad overdone.

GBPUSD sank beneath 1.41 last Thursday as Brexit speculation reached a crescendo.

There have been similar moves too on yen, dollar, bunds, gold and a whole host of other assets as Brexit-related correlations cascade through the markets.

So what will it be this Thursday? Will we see the UK voters opt for an EU get-out clause and strike a lonely path towards a very different kind of future? We genuinely can't call it and continue to believe that this might shift again (and back and forth and back...) in the next three days.

Nothing is cast in stone. Traders should take great care.

Have you taken part in Saxo Bank’s Brexit poll?
What do you think will be the outcome of Thursday’s pivotal vote?
Vote now in Saxo’s Brexit poll on
our dedicated Brexit pages

GBPUSD's rally above 1.46 could be a false dawn


Source: SaxoTraderGO

Martin O'Rourke is managing editor at Saxo Bank


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