23 June 2016 at 1:37 GMT
- The latest poll is favouring the Remain camp
- This pushed the GBP higher, as did a large option flow
- Trading was quiet ahead of the vote with the FTSE finishing slightly up
By Saxo APAC Sales Trading
Three polls were published yesterday but a last poll favouring the Remain camp pushed the GBP higher. But the main trigger was a large option flow seen yesterday in the market (see below) that pushed the GBP back above the 200d MA and closed above, which is significant. A Remain camp win could probably push now the GBP to 1.5500.
The main flow seen in the GBP
was buyer of 1.5600 GBPUSD
calls for one month in 1bln GBP that triggered buying interest in the spot market. Today the volatilities are extremely wide with overnight GBP trading at 100/200 in volatilities.
Rates followed the GBP and continued to rally another two basis points ahead of the final vote.
It was a very quiet day with the FTSE finishing slightly up ahead of the vote.
EU referendum timing (SGT/HKT time; GMT+8)
- 0500 – Sky News YouGov Poll (accurate for the Scottish referendum, less so for the UK General Election)
- 0730-1030 - Starting with Newcastle and Sunderland, taking us through to half the results
- 1030-1200 - Busiest period of results culminating in the larger populous areas (N.Ireland and Birmingham followed by Glasgow, Manchester and Liverpool)
- 1200-1400 - Unless the vote is exceptionally close, the result should be clear by this stage
Please note these official times could potentially slip
Polls show the Remain vote is starting to pull ahead as the UK prepares to vote. Photo: iStock
– Edited by Gayle Bryant