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Day trade
Trade view / 08 June 2016 at 8:12 GMT

Bias turns mildly bullish for USDCHF

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – There's no clear indication that the selloff in the USD index is finished yet but we have a 261.8% extension at 93.83 (markets have a tendency to push past) and a 61.8% pullback level at 93.44 (current price 93.69). Starting to look for reasons to buy the USD. The intraday chart also looks to be forming an Ending Wedge.
 
USDCHF – Took a small long in USDCHF this morning as it is the only USD-based pair that is showing a sign of turning.

The monthly chart highlights a bullish Outside Candle posted in May. As long as this formation is not broken (base at 0.9442) then the long-term bias remains bullish.

USDCHF M
 Source: Saxo Bank

The weekly chart highlights a wedge breakout that has a target area of 1.0248. The fact that we had a bearish Outside Week (last week) and the pair has moved back inside the wedge is a concern. However, dip buying now and a weekly close above 0.9683 (wedge trend line) would indicate a retest and rejection and keep the focus bullish.

USDCHF W
Source: Saxo Bank 

The daily chart highlights the pair stalling at the 61.8% pullback level of 0.9642 (from the 0.9446-0.9958 move). It's interesting now that the 161.8% extension is close to the wedge target and a good medium-term focus.

USDCHF D
Source: Saxo Bank

The intraday chart highlights a Demark 13 exhaustion count and a bullish Outside Bar from the base. We are far from having a reversal formation and intraday resistance is seen at 0.9707. However, these two factors do flip the intraday bias to bullish and, with risk/reward at close to 5/1, we are willing to buy this dip.

USDCHF 1
Source: Saxo Bank

If this intraday trade plays out we would look to close to 0.9700 and then re-instate longs on a dip close to 0.9675.

Parameters

Entry: long at 0.9652

Stop: 0.9640

Target: 0.9708

Time horizon: today only

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
Raj-900 Raj-900
Hi Ian,
Is this trade still valid should the USDCHF bounce back without going further down as it seems to have hit the stop loss?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am out ... I am still trying to buy dips in USD though
1y
Raj-900 Raj-900
Thanks
1y
Raj-900 Raj-900
Hi Ian,
Upto what price you consider to buy? or totally off from this trade?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
need to get a confirmation of a USD turn... It could dip a fair bit yet. Next resistance in EURUSD is 1.1418. In USCHF we would need toi see a break of this mornings high to confirm USD buying is back on
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
the stop for the Demark 13 count is 0.9625
1y
Raj-900 Raj-900
thanks

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