Kay Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, digests the market action seen in week 43 and gives his tactical positing. Van-Petersen favours a USD step back, sees gold consolidating, and believes that European equities are overheated.
Day trade
Trade view / 10 June 2016 at 7:01 GMT

Bias turning in EURUSD

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom

USD Index: The medium-term focus is still bullish for the index as long as the 91.88 low remains intact. The fact that we have seen a good reaction from the 61.8% Fibonacci level (of 93.44) also offers a bullish bias going into today, but only after a correction lower. 

We have hit some bespoke resistance overnight at 94.25 so the preferred trade today is to buy into dips. The intraday chart highlights a bullish five-wave pattern (Elliott Wave) highlighting that we should now see a correction lower in a choppy, three-wave pattern. 

Prime support (and a possible right shoulder of a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern) is between 93.90 and 93.73 (93.73 being prime, lining up with the previous swing low and the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level).

Summary: Buying USD dips

USD index daily, buyers from 61.8%:
USD Index D

Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank

US index one hour (DXc1), bullish five-wave pattern:
USD Index 1
Source: Saxo Bank 

EURUSD looks primed for the next move lower.

The monthly chart highlights a bearish outside candle that offers a downward bias. It should also be noted that 1.1440 has capped buying on eight occasions in the seventeen months. 

Monthly (1.1440 caps buying):
 Source: Saxo Bank

The daily chart highlights an expanding wedge formation that has an eventual bias to break to the downside (one of the hardest patterns to trade as high volatility is normally seen inside). We posted a bearish Outside Day from the top of the Ichimoku cloud yesterday. 

Daily chart (bearish Outside Day):
 Source: Saxo Bank

The intraday chart highlights an Evening Doji star from close to the 261.8% extension level of 1.1419 (from 1.1096-1.1219). This coincided with a wedge breakout. We have hit some bespoke support at 1.1290 overnight so selling at the open would be unwise. Marabuzo support from the 03/06 is seen at 1.1255. 

Four-hour chart (selling into rallies):
Source: Saxo Bank

Market Profile highlights yesterday’s Point of Control at 1.1338. With our bespoke resistance at 1.1335, this is regarded as a prime area to get short. 

Stop can be placed above yesterday's mid-point (1.1360) and, with the target level being the June 3 Marabuzo at 1.1255; this offers a solid risk/reward trade today. 


Entry: selling at 1.1335.

Stop: 1.1365.

Target: 1.1255.

Time horizon: today to trigger, two or three sessions for target.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on forex click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail