Short term
Trade view / 12 March 2018 at 0:21 GMT

AUDUSD recovery is under way

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target: 0.7986
Market price: 0.7855

This will be a quiet few days for economic data out of Australia following on from last week’s GDP numbers and the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy statement, neither of which were market moving. 

Attention will now focus on commodity prices and hints President Trump will exempt Australia from his tariff hikes (which gave the AUD a boost on Friday).
In the US the main event will be the Consumer Price Index update on Tuesday. 

More slow but sure progress on core inflation is expected. This will be the last major data point ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next Monday-Tuesday when we will learn how many bullets the Fed has loaded into its pistol for 2018. 

Markets are pricing in just short of three 25 basis point hikes by year end.

Management and risk description

The AUD's price action over the past 2-3 weeks has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders bottoming formation. 

Neckline support lies around the 0.7820 level; with an upside pattern objective of 0.7980 over the coming days (refer Hourly Chart below).

In the short term, support lies at 0.7835/0.7820 for rally onto 0.7890/0.7905 resistance, en route to 0.7980/0.8010 ahead.


Entry: Today: Aussie dollar seen as a buy (market) and again at 0.7830 if seen

Stop: just under 0.7815, initially.

Target: 50% at 0.7898 and 50% at 0.7986 

Time horizon: several days at least 

AUDUSD hourly chart (click to expand)
AUDUSD hourly chart
  AUDUSD daily chart (click to expand)
AUDUSD daily chart
AUDUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
Source: All charts, ThomsonReuters  

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on is found here
13 March
smottee smottee
Hi Max, What is you current view on this one? Initial target was just about met, but have we now switched to "risk-off" again in the light of Trump dismissing his secretary of state? Are you closing the remaining position?
14 March
Max McKegg Max McKegg
No, still "in play"
14 March
smottee smottee
15 March
marran marran
hi max not a lot seems to be happening at the moment are you sticking with this?


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