Day trade
/
Buy
Trade view / 29 March 2017 at 7:39 GMT

AUDUSD looks a great medium- and short-term setup

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target: .8170
Market price: 0.7637
Background

USD indexApart from a bounce (profit-taking) from trendline support (neckline) I can see no technical reason to change the bearish outlook in the USD index. 

The gap from Sunday night has now been closed and I would look for rallies to 99.82-96 to be capped.  

USD Index D













Source: Saxo Bank

The only way we would expect a larger USD correction is if we could manage to post a reverse head-and-shoulders in a shorter timeframe (30 minutes). As the book says, "trade what you see!". With this in mind, we now turn again to selling USD rallies today.  

USD Index 30













Source: Saxo Bank

AUDUSD looks a great medium- and short-term setup today.

Monthly: Mixed trading for the last 24 months; January's bullish engulfing candle offers a mild upside bias. Over the long term we could see a move towards 0.9454 (61.8% pullback).

AUDUSD m













Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly: Mixed trading for 49 weeks can be seen in two ways, both bullish... first, a reverse head-and-shoulders, a clear breakout, and the measured move target is 0.8855. Second, a consolidating triangle that is forming a bullish flag. 

On a break the measured move target is 0.8170.

Reverse head-and-shoulders:
AUDUSD W













Source: Saxo Bank

Bullish flag:
AUDUSD w2













Source: Saxo Bank

Daily: A bullish five-wave count completed. The move to 38.2% (0.7517) is enough to complete the pullback but we would have preferred to see it in a more defined three-wave pattern.  

AUDUSD D













Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (two-hours): Highlights a bullish reversal at the 61.8% pullback level of 0.7589. We have stalled overnight at the trend of higher lows and there is scope for a further mild correction to complete a right shoulder (of a small bullish reverse head-and-shoulders pattern).  

AUDUSD 2













Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (15 minutes): If we drill down to the 15-minute timeframe we can see a bullish five-wave count and are now in the corrective sequence lower. Buying a dip close to 0.7620 offers the 50% Fibonacci level and right shoulder "protection".  

AUDUSD 15












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Source: Saxo Bank

Parameters

Entry: buying close to 0.7620.

Stop: 0.7590.

Target: intraday 0.7720, medium-term 0.8170 and/or 0.8855.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on forex click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
3y
usxau usxau
Good morning Ian! Yes, I like the Aussie and Kiwi too to the long side as both are high yielders and once all the 'political' uncertainties are removed we finally might look at fundamentals again! :)
3y
usxau usxau
Wishing all a great trading day and a happy Article 50 trigger day! :)
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
LOL... and you ..... don't 'think' GBP will drop too much further
3y
usxau usxau
Actually I couldn't help myself but get very small long gbpchf and gbpjpy just now. If it works great if not, no milk spilled! :)
3y
usxau usxau
Interesting is also the analysis of COT data, showing that we have the largest short cable positions ever and the bulk of the short bets have been established in the last 3 weeks. It will be very interesting to see where the market takes cable after today. Furthermore I anticipate that the tone of the April 4th statement of the EU council will be interesting for clues as to what we can expect! :)
3y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
Got long from your call last week through PIA nice one Ian let's hope 8.170
3y
AlexF AlexF
Morning all, what a drop on GBP ! got stopped on GBPAUD at 1.645 but still was good trade
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
nice call buying GBP crosses .... didn't see that coming ... out of EURGBP flat
3y
Simont Simont
AUD/USD still toying with 0.7650, hard to enter a long round here unless it breaks, or retraces back towards 0.7600?
These markets need direction. Too many pivotal USD points nearby, but great for nicking 30-50 pips just on playing the RSI.
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I agree ... and with AUDUSD just hitting a Demark 13... I can only buy dips ...
3y
Simont Simont
Surprised no one is talking USD/JPY either, the break of 111.60 'should' take us towards 107.50 over the coming weeks.
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I like YEN crosses higher ..... but don't think the move will be predominately YEN based
3y
AG11406 AG11406
Ian what about gbpjpy ... levels to watch ?
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
usxau, i am also long in gbpjpy. guess hv to be a v patient trade. my guts is with fiscal year end in march, come april we shld see yen weaken greatly.
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
needs to hold here or could drop down to 134.00
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
thanks ian coleman. ya. there is some risks to take for gbpyen
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
simont, i feel usdjpy likely sideways.. come april next wk i think the direction for usdjpy should be clearer as the fiscal year ends for japanese corporations. by rite by now i feel yen demand shld hv eased. nevertheless i think a fair value for uj shld be around 112-112.5 midpoint of 110 support n 115 resistance. uj may trade sideways around 111 to 113. i am nt bullish on usd but also nt bullish on jpy. But for now usd looks oversold
3y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
closed 1 unit on the AUDUSD looking to enter on a dip later
3y
ashrafj1 ashrafj1
is that triggered as buy at 0.7620
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i gt long audusd at 0.7585 n audjpy at 74.05 yesterday at the dip. but hv taken profit.

only my gbpjpy right now is bleedinv
3y
AG11406 AG11406
Ian you mean level of 137,34 to hold?
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i long my gbpjpy a bit too early... but did split into batches w different lot size.
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am not a buyer in GBPJPY
3y
andrisnalin andrisnalin
Hi Ian, perhaps my Q sounds bit lame, but how would you define short- and medium term in timescale? Short is intraday or 1-2 days long, and medium lasts few days or week(s)? Appreciate your article and feedback, too, if possible. Cheers
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
intraday is correct ..... medium term 4 days to 4 weeks ... over that is long-term
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
typically .. I take weekly daily 4 hour for direction .. then try to get entries in lower timeframes
3y
usxau usxau
gbpjpy will only move greatly if we see a strong move in cable and usdjpy goes sideways. I was prepared to take that risk and will add to my pos if we get moving! ;) Same applies to my gbpchf pos both negative yielders and we have UK GDP on Friday to make it really interesting! ;)
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
i agree w u totally usxau. keep finger cross.
3y
usxau usxau
eurnzd from yesterday is working nicely!
3y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
you Long Sabrina on EURNZD ??
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
usxau, i just hope uj n uc wont down too much and hope the safe haven flow will ease.

uj up will be good for GJ
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/783900/Britain-secret-Brexit-10-year-tariff-free-trade-deal-negotiations

usxau - read. this shld remove all the uncertainty in brexit. actually eu will also lose if they punish uk
3y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
come on AUDUSD push though 7660 to the upside
3y
usxau usxau
agree with you Andrew!
3y
usxau usxau
Thanks Fashionapolis for the link! Great read! :)
3y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
think the markets taking a bit of a breather ... night all.
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
usxuax finallg yen pairs starts to move. japan inflation data shld weaken jpy. US and UK gdp shld be good. Time for gbpjpy to awaken... keep finger cross
3y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
usxau - finally gbpjpy awakens. 139.2

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