Short term
Trade view / 14 September 2016 at 1:07 GMT

AUDUSD: Complex structure with downside risk

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand

Risk-off sentiment (see my article) has driven down AUDUSD in the past couple of days and is likely to dominate the cross until analysts figure out just why stock, bond and commodity prices are falling in unison. 

FOMC members have now gone off-air ahead of their meeting next week and there is no significant data out of the US until Thursday’s retail sales number and Friday’s inflation update. 

Ahead of that, we will see Australia’s labour market data for August, with 15,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.7% expected. The actual numbers would have to come in better than forecast to off-set global sentiment as the key driver of AUDUSD over the remainder of the week.

Management and risk description

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the Ozzy has been trading within a complex corrective structure these past months and is now probably undergoing a Wave-c decline (refer daily chart below). Also, from a classical charting standpoint it is tenable to interpret a completed two-month Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (see daily chart) with a downside objective of .7210. Resistance at .7490/.7520 probably now contains for sell-off towards the mid .7300s en route to the low .7200s over coming days. 


Entry: AUDUSD seen as sell today at .7485/.7500 (directly below .7430 cancels).

Stop: .7524, initially.

Target: .7236.

Time horizon: Allow several days.  

AUDUSD daily chart (click to expand)
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Source: ThomsonReuters  

AUDUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
Source: ThomsonReuters. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more

— Edited by Susan McDonald

For more on forex click here             

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
14 September
izwansamba izwansamba
Tq max
14 September
Max McKegg Max McKegg
14 September
lee88 lee88
Hi Max... just wanna drop in to say hi....have been watching your trading tips quite a while... I must say u and clive are the best among the lot here..... but i think u have to agree with me that 2016 is a terrible year for currencies.. what with the difficult and tricky ranges we have had... still i applaud u for ur great analysis... although i see this current ozzy trade being not a good trade... ozzy should bounce back up after the employment figures.... 0.7730 drop to 0.7440... will bounce back up.... cheers max...
14 September
Max McKegg Max McKegg
can't disagree with You Lee but it will pass (always does)
14 September
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Stop now lowered to BreakEven
16 September
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
Hi, Max ! Your opinion on AUDUSD now ?
16 September
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Has strongly tested Neckline resistance and this must now Hold if further Downside to eventuate
16 September
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail