Short term
Trade view / 14 September 2016 at 1:07 GMT

AUDUSD: Complex structure with downside risk

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target:
Market price:

Risk-off sentiment (see my article) has driven down AUDUSD in the past couple of days and is likely to dominate the cross until analysts figure out just why stock, bond and commodity prices are falling in unison. 

FOMC members have now gone off-air ahead of their meeting next week and there is no significant data out of the US until Thursday’s retail sales number and Friday’s inflation update. 

Ahead of that, we will see Australia’s labour market data for August, with 15,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.7% expected. The actual numbers would have to come in better than forecast to off-set global sentiment as the key driver of AUDUSD over the remainder of the week.

Management and risk description

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the Ozzy has been trading within a complex corrective structure these past months and is now probably undergoing a Wave-c decline (refer daily chart below). Also, from a classical charting standpoint it is tenable to interpret a completed two-month Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (see daily chart) with a downside objective of .7210. Resistance at .7490/.7520 probably now contains for sell-off towards the mid .7300s en route to the low .7200s over coming days. 


Entry: AUDUSD seen as sell today at .7485/.7500 (directly below .7430 cancels).

Stop: .7524, initially.

Target: .7236.

Time horizon: Allow several days.  

AUDUSD daily chart (click to expand)
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Source: ThomsonReuters  

AUDUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
Source: ThomsonReuters. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more

— Edited by Susan McDonald

For more on forex click here             

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
izwansamba izwansamba
Tq max
Max McKegg Max McKegg
lee88 lee88
Hi Max... just wanna drop in to say hi....have been watching your trading tips quite a while... I must say u and clive are the best among the lot here..... but i think u have to agree with me that 2016 is a terrible year for currencies.. what with the difficult and tricky ranges we have had... still i applaud u for ur great analysis... although i see this current ozzy trade being not a good trade... ozzy should bounce back up after the employment figures.... 0.7730 drop to 0.7440... will bounce back up.... cheers max...
Max McKegg Max McKegg
can't disagree with You Lee but it will pass (always does)
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Stop now lowered to BreakEven
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111
Hi, Max ! Your opinion on AUDUSD now ?
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Has strongly tested Neckline resistance and this must now Hold if further Downside to eventuate
vyacheslav111 vyacheslav111


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