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Squawk / 12 July 2016 at 10:39 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Attached is a eurusd chart but you can apply to most liquid markets but require a different time reference point.
The strategy is really a funds manager value at risk strategy reversed to be income generative ! Further it works on average once in every four trading days which sounds pretty naff but read on......as ''naff'' is good :-) LOL
The chart is hourly spot eurusd and I use the 9am - 10am BST candle as my reference point. Enter a 50% stake size long on the break of this range and hold to the close (9pm BST reference) Should an hourly close occur above the 9 - 10 range then add to the trade to make a 100% usual stake size.
1y
fxtime fxtime
VaR determines just how much risk is present to your trading account per pip/pt/day/etc...this relies that at worse you have a controlled profit using the 50% stake size or every 1 in 4 average events you maximise returns.
1y
fxtime fxtime
True VaR modelling rolls to your next reference point though....so the most profitable strategy is to position your stop at b/e and await the new reference candle so that would be today and you would have banked +65pips. Now we await todays move to trigger. Your real risk is the range of the 9 - 10 candle :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
To clarify a price break of the trading range...first look at the spread on your trade ticket...if it is 2pips then a price break is 3pips beyond the trade range....add a pip onto your spread to minimise the chance of a bad fill trade. I see today we have a sell trade on eurusd :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
Remember today could be a scalp or we get a 1 in 4 chance of a good continuous move !
1y
fxtime fxtime
Update for this idea....so far next to nothing in drawdown and obviously the trade is still running until tomorrow but a protective stop is now in position.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Remember it is a 1 in 4 chance of a continuous move that we seek to capitalise on....we could close and bank the profits or seek the bigger move which is now risk free. At 9pm BST I will adjust the stop to secure +5 which implies pityful profits but when the extended move does occur I reap the rewards heartilly :-)
1y
Estuardorlemus Estuardorlemus
So in this one, when do you decide when to scalp and when to hold?

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