Medium term
Trade view / 01 September 2016 at 9:40 GMT

Apple product launch bonanza could spur move up

Trader /
United States

Shares of Apple offered active investors and traders a good reward to risk opportunity on the long side following the July earnings report. Over the past couple of weeks the stock is once again in consolidation mode as the next big product event looms on the horizon on September 7. Here is some perspective.

When I last offered a trade idea in shares of Apple on August 4 I discussed that upon a break past 'diagonal' technical resistance the stock has an upside price target in the $110-112 range. By mid-August this upside target was reached and this swing trade concluded profitably.

While AAPL stock remains in its longer-term uptrend, the intermediate-term trend since the May 2015 highs has been decidedly lower with the stock forming a well-defined series of lower  highs. The August rally in the stock did break it back above diagonal resistance from the 2015 highs and from a momentum perspective the MACD oscillator is just beginning to curl higher. Through this lens the stock could indeed continue to ascend in coming months. 

Apple Inc.
Source: eSignal

On the daily chart we see that although the stock has been pulling back over the past couple of weeks, the damage done so far is of little significance and in fact just has the stock pulling back toward the previous diagonal resistance line, which now could turn into support. Very simply, I would not be looking to blindly jump the gun and buy AAPL stock here without a significant daily bullish reversal for the risk of a gap-fill of the August up-gap near $96.50 is one that cannot be discounted just yet.

Apple Inc.
Source: eSignal

Management and risk description

Traders looking at AAPL stock at this juncture must ask themselves whether it is worth taking a stab at the stock in either direction ahead of next week's September 7 product event. Personally I try not to get ahead of such events but rather am looking for a potential bullish reversal following the event that could offer me a better reward to risk entry on the long side.


Entry: buy the stock or CFD upon a bullish reversal and successful re-test of previous resistance (i.e. the diagonal line on the charts above).

Stop: $103.

Target: $115.

Time horizon:  3-5 weeks.

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
03 September
AlexF AlexF
Hi Serge did the action on Friday validate your entry in aapl ?
05 September
Serge Berger Serge Berger
Hi, I would like to see how the stock trades on Tuesday in the morning session but yes the Friday price action looks promising so far


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail