John J Hardy
In this latest webinar, Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy analyses the market after the central bank of Turkey announced a huge rate hike.
Squawk / 09 February 2018 at 21:17 GMT
Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
All the action was in the US stock market today: bonds and USD were comparatively quiet (although USDJPY went up and down with equities)

On the futures/CFD chart (covering all sessions) the S&P 500 recorded a double-bottom at 2530 before recovering strongly into the close (2618)

For those with a bearish mindset, consider the chart below matching the last few days with 1987

The much-predicted bear market in bonds can’t gather any steam with the stock market so volatile.

Perhaps best to stand back and look at the big picture:

Consider this chart of the real rate on US 10-year bonds (the yield less the inflation rate)

A break out to the topside on this pattern would be significant, giving investors an attractive option vis a vis stocks.

It would also be bearish for gold (and commodities in general)
09 February
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Apologies. Wrong chart above. This is the right one.

(then post the attached chart)
09 February
Patto Patto
Max, do you think we should take into account the after-market action (futures/CFDs) in our technical analysis of stock markets ? A few days ago the Dow futures fell 1200 points after hours (to that 2530 level you mention) but the move didn't show up in daily charts of the "normal hours" trading session (8.30am-4pm New York time). The SP500 touched 2530 in "normal hours" today to give the double-bottom on "all time zone" charts. All very confusing ..........
10 February
Jim Earls Jim Earls
Patto: Most the increase of the S&P 500 since 1993 has been entirely during Futures trading-off regular trading hours.
10 February
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Jim. This is why I prefer to trade the FX markets. There are no "after market" prices to consider. FX is a 24 hour market and all the action is captured in the charts.
11 February
Jim Earls Jim Earls
Max-could not agree more with you. People keep claiming FX trading is highly risky, but I see it the other way around with equity markets being primarily priced in off hours less liquid Futures trading.
15 February
US 10y above 2.9% and gold, silver, cad, aud, nzd all higher against USD from overnight CPI data, do you expect US10Y rate to drop ?
15 February
Max McKegg Max McKegg
The Trend is Up


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