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Jacob Pouncey
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Article / 09 July 2018 at 15:17 GMT

All quiet on the trade war front

FX Trade Strategist / www.Loonieviews.net
Canada
By Michael O'Neill


It’s all quiet on the trade war front, but for how long is anyone’s guess. Fading trade drama and the nonfarm payrolls hangover lifted Wall Street at today’s open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has stormed out of the gate, rising 191 points (as of 13:45 GMT) while the S&P 500 gained 16 points. Some traders believe the higher than expected unemployment rate and the drop in average hourly earnings may slow the pace of rate increases. Others think the variances were anomalies attributed to more people looking for work.

WTI oil prices are bouncing in a $72.10/barrel-$74.75/b range. Oil bulls expect higher rates from rising global demand, pending US sanctions on Iran crude exports and supply disruptions. Oil bears see lower prices because of expectations of a trade war will reduce demand even as Opec and Russia are increasing prices.

Sterling’s Asia/European morning rally after UK PM Theresa May’s cabinet agreed to a Brexit negotiating strategy ignored the news that Brexit Chief negotiator David Davis resignation. He wasn’t happy with the plan. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnston wasn’t either. He signed the document after describing it as a “polished turd.” He resigned around 14:00 GMT, and GBPUSD dropped from 1.3350 to 1.3260. A break below 1.3250 targets 1.3190.

The lack of trade drama helped to power AUD/USD higher. The uptrend from the end of June low is intact above 0.7400 and today’s break above resistance at 0.7442 targets 0.7580 if 0.7490 is broken decisively. However, the long-term downtrend is intact supported by the different Reserve Bank of Australia/Fed interest rate policies and the ongoing China/US trade skirmish.

Chart: AUDUSD 4-hour
chart
 Source: Saxo Bank
09 July
John Shaw John  Shaw
You were indeed correct my friend the other day on this USDCAD subject.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-loonie-price-1.4733535
09 July
MyTrade MyTrade
Shouldn't some analysts go and cover the shortage of truck drivers in US? ?:)
09 July
MyTrade MyTrade
Anyway, where's the new version of TF? :)
09 July
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
Thanks John, I must have been lucky
09 July
Patto Patto
Yes, where is the new version of TF previously suggested as coming "soon" ? I check back here every week or so and nothing seems to have changed - except all the contributors with the most Followers (Ian Coleman, Max McKegg) have all disappeared. Is that what the "new" version of TF will be: less content ?
10 July
marran marran
it would be nice if they sorted the new TF out sooner than later
10 July
Clare Mac Carthy Clare Mac Carthy
Hi all, the new and vastly improved Morning Call will be live after the hols - beginning of September. It'll be worth the wait....
10 July
marran marran
thanks for the rply Clare, everyone is really looking forward to seeing it
10 July
MyTrade MyTrade
Sounds well, but anyway miss the depth this site once offered. Maybe i'm old when prefer reading to watching.
10 July
Patto Patto
I hope Saxobank brings back some of the popular contributors that have left. You can tell from the Comments sections that those were the people readers are most interested in.

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