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Article / 09 February 2018 at 16:21 GMT

Algunas señales del mercado para reflexionar

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
calmer
 Las cosas se calmaron en EE.UU. en la apertura del viernes, pero aún estamos en modo de espera. Foto: Shutterstock

Por Steen Jakobsen

Dos temas muy importantes antes del fin de semana:

El primer análisis es cortesía de Marketwatch y el gráfico en sí del presidente de Arbeter Investments LLC, Mark Arbeter, CMT.

La frase clave en esta pieza es:

"... .Arber señaló que aunque los tipos de interés aún no estén listos para dispararse, los inversores de bolsa pueden tener motivos para estar preocupados. Cuando el rendimiento se incrementó sobre la línea de tendencia bajista anterior, como sucedió en 1987, 1990, 1994, 2000 y 2007, sucedieron cosas malas en Wall Street ".


yields and stocks  Fuente: Arbeter Investments LLC president Mark Arbeter, CMT 

Apunte: Si rompemos la tendencia alcista o no, hay un "ciclo de retroalimentación negativo" en los activos de riesgo.

El segundo es igual de importante y proviene de @ SongMun67 - Song Mun señaló en Twitter: Los mercados tienen una naturaleza logarítmica. Los gráficos semi-largos son mucho mejores a largo plazo.
T-notes
 Fuente: @SongMun67 - Song Mun

Aquí el apunte es que no hemos roto por arriba ... todavía.

También tenga en cuenta esto: en Saxo Bank hemos desarrollado nuestros propios modelos de crédito implícito, mire esta información de nuestro jefe de análisis macro, Christopher Dembik.

credit impulse
 

El futuro del NASDAQ podría cerrar por debajo de su media móvil simple diaria de 100 sesiones:
nasdaq
Fuente: Bloomberg 

Tal vez no sea una coincidencia que la señal de tráfico del mercado todavía esté en ámbar:
amber
 Fuente: Shutterstock

John Hardy hizo un excelente video explicando lo sucedido esta semana al detalle: véalo aquí.

– Editado por Sala de Inversión España


Steen Jakobsen es economista jefe y CIO de Saxo Bank

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