Trade view /
23 June 2017 at 6:32 GMT
BackgroundNasty price action this week and it is all down to the US dollar. Looking at the calendar today we see numerous lower tier releases that will probably result in ongoing intraday volatility.
USD Index Daily – We have posted little net change for four days in a row now as we correct higher in the 4th wave (of a bearish Elliott wave pattern). The long-term outlook is bearish
USD Index Intraday (two-hours) – The intraday chart highlights this mixed price action and trying to pick the next leg is no easy task! We should push higher in part of the CD leg. With this in mind, we have a cautious approach to buying the USD today
EURUSD Weekly – Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. The measured move target line of 1.1615 lines up with the 261.8% extension at 1.1626 (from 1.0348-1.0836) and keep the medium-term picture focused on higher levels (long-term bullish)
EURUSD Daily – Bullish price action stalled close to 1.1250, an area that attracted sellers in September and October of 2016. We are assessed as being within the 4th wave correction lower. A prime area for this pattern to complete is between the 23.6 and 38.2% pullback level (1.1105-1.0988)
EURUSD Intraday (two-hours) – Highlights the pair in this choppy correction lower. A full AB=CD formation would take the pair to 1.1055. This last move higher (from June 20) is anything but impulsive as we do not believe this to be the start of the next major bullish wave (June 5). With this in mind, and with caution, we look to sell into rallies for the last leg lower today.
Management and risk description
Entry: We are looking for an intraday 'double top' and selling at 1.1176
Stop: 1.1206 (this is above the corrective channel formation - last chart)
Time horizon: today to trigger. 2-4 sessions for the target
— Edited by Clemens Bomsdorf
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