Medium term
Trade view / 24 June 2016 at 7:29 GMT

A look at prime entry levels for FX majors after severe moves today

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom

The US dollar move was not a surprise, as that has been our long term view for some time now. But the severity of the moves, especially GBPUSD, was a surprise. Intraday trade calls, with good risk/reward, are virtually impossible to find today. So we look to highlight medium-term setups and targets.

The USD Index has broken the daily channel formation to the upside in a very impulsive manner. Any dips back towards the breakout level or previous resistance (now support) would be well received (by USD bulls). The buy area is 95.22-94.43.

USD indexUSD Index D

Source: Saxo Bank

The monthly chart highlights a bullish outside candle last month with dips bought into in June. The target area is the Fibonacci confluence zone at 102.03-102.10.

USD index monthly chart

USD Index M
Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD looks bearish

The monthly chart highlights a bearish outside candle. The target area after this consolidation is 1.0047-0.9898.

Source: Saxo Bank

The daily EURUSD chart highlights the expanding wedge breakout overnight.

A pullback towards the previous low (was support now resistance) at 1.1103 or trend line at 1.1135 should be met with selling. If I get a short term sell signal before this zone, I will be selling looking to 1.0782

Daily EURUSD chart
Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD nosedives

GBPUSD hit its lowest levels in 31 years overnight! This was a previous area of support in 1986, 2001, 2008 and 2009.

GBPUSD chart
 Source: Saxo Bank

The weekly chart highlights an AB equals CD completed at 1.3303, so it would be unwise to sell at current levels.

The previous swing low is seen at 1.3833 but our bespoke resistance is not seen until 1.4150. I don’t fancy a 300 pips stop today!

GBPUSD weekly chart

 Source: Saxo Bank


USDCHF – Wedge breakout. A move back towards 0.9660 would offer a good long entry trade today, targeting the previous high then on towards the 161.8% extension at 1.0274.

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY rally prospects

USDJPY is the most interesting of all. Completed the long term target at ¥101.60-¥100.60. The weekly chart highlights a five wave Elliot Wave formation complete.

With EURJPY also at a 161.8% extension, I think we get a good corrective rally from here.

USDJPY chart
Source: Saxo Bank

Elliott Wave Completed for USDJPY
 Source: Saxo Bank


USDCAD is moving higher towards the AB=CD formation target at 1.3380. It attempted to break the intraday wedge formation to the upside.

A good long entry area this morning would be 1.2933.

USDCAD chart
 Source: Saxo Bank

Expanding Wedge for USDCAD
 Source: Saxo Bank

Aussie dollar points to meltdown risk

AUDUSD is probably the most frightening of charts for a global meltdown. This is because AUDJPY follows stocks lower.

The target level for the wedge breakout is close to the 261.8% extension level at 0.4734.

AUDUSD chart
 Source: Saxo Bank

Let's consider the daily chart. We are going to post a bearish outside day (unless wee see a sustained correction). The prime short entry is 0.7460. We are looking for a move towards the lows this week (0.6825)

AUDUSD daily chart
Source: Saxo Bank

EURGBP hard to call

The monthly EURGBP chart highlights the pair breaking the channel to the upside. With the 0.8062 area broken, all bearish counts are now invalid.

The weekly chart show that we could have an Elliott wave five wave completion. So selling rallies or breaks is probably the short term call. This is a hard one to call.

EURGBP chart


Source: Saxo Bank

Five Wave Pattern for EURGBP
 Source: Saxo Bank

EURJPY correction

Turning to the EURJPY: we have hit the 161.8% extension level of ¥111.21. We are correcting higher. The prime barrier is the reverse trend line and 23.6% pullback level at 116.65. I think this correction higher will be more yen-based than euro-driven.

EURJPY trend
 Source: Saxo Bank. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more.

Please keep an eye on my wall for live trades, stops and targets.

For more on forex, click here.

— Edited by  Robert Ryan

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
24 June
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
we did get the move down to 95.22. We need to see some bullish price action now or we could see a move down towards 94.50 in the CD leg (of an AB=CD formation)
24 June
John Roberti John Roberti
Ian, I followed your proposal on USDCAD at 1,2933 but the pair seems a bit erratic and I would like to know your feeling regarding the stop to be used for this pair. I am also in it for USDCHF again at 96,60 and what would be a fair stop to be used Thanks for the recommendation of shorting GPB USDD at 1,3833 it is doing well
24 June
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Jo John.. I still like both those trades. Got some bespoke support at 1.2908. This hour close (5pm UK) above that level and it should be safe to move to the stop to the low
24 June
John Roberti John Roberti
thanks Ian and good week end
25 June
moneyxxx moneyxxx
thanks Ian and good


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