Article / 28 June 2013 at 5:31 GMT

3 Numbers to Watch: DE Retail, US Chicago ISM, U. Mich. Sentiment

Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily

Today’s data releases are not terribly important ones, but there are many of them. Tonnes of data came out of Japan last night and notably the inflation numbers are still not reacting to ‘Abenomics’, but at least the industrial production and PMI surprised positively. This could translate into a positive tone for the European morning session, as the data did not kill the idea that aggressive monetary policy can help an economy.

A European Union leaders’ two-day summit ends today. EU finance ministers hammered out the details by early Thursday morning, see FT’s blog article for background information. Today we have a total of four speakers from the Federal Reserve: Stein 12:00 GMT, Lacker 13:15 GMT, Pianalto 16:00 GMT, Williams 19:30 GMT. After Bernanke’s tapering-Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, all Fed speeches have been quite accommodating, as this chart from Zero Hedge shows.

Germany May Retail Sales (06:00 GMT). A monthly fall of 0.3 percent in May is expected, after a fall of 0.4 percent in April. Retail sales have not been exactly ballooning during the past two years, and it is hoped that higher wages, low interest rates and a lull in the euro crisis will translate into happier consumers.

 DE Retail Trade

US June Chicago ISM (13:45). The regional purchasing managers' index is expected to decrease slightly to 55, from 58.7 in May. May’s reading was a positive surprise, especially as the April index dipped below the 50-level, meaning contraction, to a multi-year low. The index is sawing in a lower range than 2010-2011 – and this lower range has now twice flirted with the 50-level in the past twelve months. The number is released three minutes earlier to subscribers. See the press release here.

 US Chicago ISM

US Thomson Reuters / U. Michigan Survey of Consumers (13:55 GMT). The final reading is expected to be 83 for June, down slightly from 84.5 in May, but almost unchanged from the flash estimate of 82.7 on June-14.  After the strong consumer confidence report last Tuesday, it is hoped that today’s data release confirms the high expectations. For a longer-term chart and discussion on sentiment, see my earlier post. Lower stock prices and higher mortgage rates could begin to have an effect on confidence, but on the other hand cheaper gasoline and higher house prices are helping. As the chart shows, there is plenty of room for lower index values as well, without changing the big picture. Actually, the chart is telling a similar story for the Chicago ISM as well. Would a good scenario be further economic weakness, followed by new measures on the fiscal and monetary fronts, leading to a new bounce?


3 Numbers to Watch is published Monday-Friday on  You can choose to be notified whenever a new piece is ready if you become a TradingFloor member - it's free, and you can sign in with Twitter, Facebook, Google or LinkedIn.  You can also follow all the news from our macro team on our Macro Page.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail