TV

Lea Jakobiak
On the eve of a keynote speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi, one leading economist doesn't hold back in the way he believes the Bank has dealt with the eurozone's faltering recovery.
Article / 11 September 2012 at 4:41 GMT

3 Numbers to Watch: US Trade Balance, Optimism Index; CAN Housing

Yusuf Yassin Yusuf Yassin
Editor / Saxo Capital Markets UK
United Kingdom

Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected Sentix data for the Eurozone was a signal that the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying plan had successfully boosted investor morale. The survey, conducted September 6-8, resulted in a confidence index of -23.2, much higher than the -30.5 originally forecast by analysts.

With investors waiting anxiously for the week’s double bill of risk events – the German Constitutional Court’s decision on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC meeting on Thursday – I expect today to be a relatively slow day. Still there are some numbers to watch out for. We have trade data for July and the NFIB small business optimism index for August due out in the US, while Canada is set to release data on housing starts. 

US Trade Balance (12:30 GMT) The US trade deficit is expected to expand for July on the back of rising prices for crude oil. The trade gap is forecast to grow to USD 44.8 billion for the month from USD 42.9 billion in June. The services sector, which recorded a surplus of USD 14.6 billion in June, only partly offset the USD 22.5 billion deficit in imported petroleum. The recent dip in oil prices, which saw crude fall to around USD 90 a barrel, caused the US trade deficit to narrow last month. However, oil prices have moved sharply higher since June with crude trading at USD 114 on Monday afternoon in Europe.

Canada Housing Starts (12:15 GMT) Housing growth in Canada is expected to moderate for August after a fall in the number of building permits granted. The number of housing starts is forecast to decline from 208,500 in July to 201,000 in August, according to a consensus of analysts. Recent data shows municipalities in Canada issued building permits worth just over C$6.8 billion in July, down 2.3% from June, as a result of lower construction intentions for both residential and non-residential buildings.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (11:30 GMT) As is often quoted in the press, small businesses account for almost half of GDP in the US and a significant share of the country’s work force. The National Federation of Independent Business’s Optimism Index gauges confidence levels for small businesses in the US. The index, which has averaged 90 points during the recovery period, is forecast to inch higher from 91.2 in July to 91.3 in August, after slipping 0.2 points last month. It reported weak components in earnings trends and sales expectations, but also identified strength in employment and general expectations for the economy.

3 Numbers to Watch is published Monday-Friday on TradingFloor.com.  You can choose to be notified whenever a new piece is ready if you become a TradingFloor member - it's free, and you can sign in with Twitter, Facebook, Google or LinkedIn.  You can also follow all the news from our macro team on our Macro Page

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group provides an execution-only service and all information provided on Tradingfloor.com is solely for general information. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank Group will not be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available as part of the Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Any information which could be construed as investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such should be considered as a marketing communication. Furthermore it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research
- Full disclaimer

Show latest activity
Dismiss
Sorry, there was a problem communicating with the TradingFloor.com servers. We are working hard to solve this. Please try again later.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Portfolio service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI History service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Reference service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Root service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Trading service.
Sorry, there was a problem communicating with the Financial Calender servers. We are working hard to solve this. Please try again later.
Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail